In a interview Todd Howard states you have very little affect on it.
This.
its nothing overly major, and from the given the availible information not all the cracked up to be, I mean why would I want to screw over a lumber mill just so arrows become hard to by ...for me? thats what Im getting.
if it was something significant like the town runs low on money, food is hard or the guard power gets low or even the entire town is abandoned then yeah epic.
but havent heard anytihng like that so far.