NPC reactions in Oblivion are fine. Just this morning I watched an NPC defend herself against Glarthir. They traded blows, and then she ran for her life and got help from the watch. I often see NPCs attempting to flee. I couldn't care less that ordinary civilian NPCs appear to be masters of combat, because it is only appearance. They don't put up good fights unless you aren't much of a fighter yourself. I would expect nobles to receive some combat training if for no other reason than the danger of assassins. Also, nobles can usually afford better trainers, and probably need only pick an instructer from within their own personal guard. In Skyrim, where civil war has been raging for who knows how long, I would expect nobles to have trained even harder at self defense. Nobles and civilian NPCs alike, if they ever intend travel between towns, would be wise to learn self defense. There are plenty of bandits, marauders, and creatures that take no prisoners.
Wow man... you're waaay over anolyzing this... :S
Nobles have guards for a reason, they don't travel across the lands alone, because I'm sure the plenty of bandits and marauders you were talking about are stronger and are more in actual number. You won't see a noble woman going on her own in the woods and then trying to fight 3 bandits attacking her, she should run, and would run, in order to make it believable.
And by the way, appearance is an important thing of the game, you can't have a game lives room for imagination in your part, what you see is what's there. Why? because TES games are actual worlds, if you really want to feel you're a part of a world then whatever you see is exactly what you see.
For example: Did you see the first gameplay demonstration of Oblivion? the one who demonstrated a woman shopkeeper skill in bows, she was awful! and I liked it, she trained herself with the bow using a target, and then she drank a potion to get better at it. See? Bethesda
can do it, it's just wasn't a part of Oblivion. Hopefully, it will be a part of Skyrim.