That doesn't mean that the Staff is a tower or even a symbol of any import. The wall is a prophesy, saying "after the staff breaks" rather than "because the staff breaks."
I quite agree. There is nothing that states that these events cause Alduin’s return, this is pure speculation on my part (a more likely conclusion might be that Bethesda were simply creating a continuity between their games).
My reasoning in part is based on the ‘solutions’ to at least Morrowind and Oblivion main quests involving actions that lead to negative consequences in the following episode: Removal of the Heart weakens the limnal barriers, defeating Dagon also ends the Septim dynasty and so weakens the empire.
Daggerfall, Morrowind and Oblivion involve the destruction of Towers that variously relate to the stability of Mundus (Numidium perhaps less so in itself but a regional Dragon Break is no small matter). Skyrim’s civil war feeds Alduin.
So if these events are the foundations of the kalpa’s doom rather than omens to be witnessed then the Staff seems out of place. The chronology is also strange: Four portents within 40 years of each other and the last 200 years later with no mention of a Great War or missing moons in between.
My conjecture upon conjecture therefore is that if Staff
is the Tower the Selective broke the Dragon with then dismantling it would also affect Mundus’ stability. The culmination of all of these events enables Alduin to consume the kalpa.
My other angle is that there are two instances of an eight-piece-kit staff one (Tharn’s) that is regarded as being of great power but only seems to do things that a reasonably adept mage could do and the other (the Selective’s) that clearly is very powerful but of unknown origin and location post Break.
The UESP article on the Staff of Chaos describes it as: “Having been forged from the essence of the very Land itself” I’m not submitting that as part of my argument however as I can’t find the source for that statement. I include it in the hope that someone might know what, if anything, it’s based on.