il ask you this do you really think they can pull it off with a weakened empire at the helm?
Imperials started without Empire
Weakened Empire is better than no Empire
So Imperials is the most probable winners
Although last time they were aided by Nords
so if TES5 events will end up by Skyrim becoming separate province
Alliance between Imperials and Nords could be complicated
Altmers could have next best chance for conquering Tamriel
It is even possible that they ally with Bosmers
After kicking Khajiit and Argonian buts, liberating Morrowind and adding Dunmers to army, this alliance could be most powerful force in Tamriel
So sooner or later it would be Men-Mer war
But if Imperials would act smart they could start and support Guerrilla warfare in Black Marsh and Elsweyr (thus dividing Mer controlled territory)
Then Redguard, Breton, Imperial and Khajiit (after driving out Mer forces out of beast controlled territories) united offensive could hold back Altmers and Bosmers
At the same time Nords and Argonians would one more time kick Dunmer buts
After Morrowind is dealt with most Nord and Argonian soldiers would join united Men-Beast force and deal with Bosmers
Altmers at this point most probably would surrender
I'm not sure where would Orsimers stand in this conflict
Most probably they would serve as mercenaries for Men-Beast forces or remain neutrality
P.S. On the side note- where does Kingdoms of Thras is located? UESP claims it is SW of Tamriel, but on the map thats where Pyandonea is located. But it is where Maormer lives, so where exactly Sload live?