I lurk (far too much for my own good) but after seeing this topic for about the fifth time, I felt compelled to log in and make a post.
PrefaceThis stuff about physically accurate snow is getting out of hand. Skyrim is not going to be employing particle physics for snow, nor is it going to be even doing a crude approximation of particle physics for snow. The former is, well, impossible with today's technology and the latter would look bad/unbelievable and probably STILL be too computationally expensive.
The "Old" Way and Skyrim PredictionsWhat you had for "snow" in Oblivion was essentially a 2D animated texture, affixed to the camera. It was in view space, not world space. It was awful. If you looked up and started running the snow would follow you. I predict that in Skyrim they have moved snow into world space and use a particle system,
sans the physics. It will probably have inputs for wind speed and direction, and attempt to mimic SOME physically observable patterns of snow fall.
What I expect the description in GI was describing is the new world space snow, in combination with a snow pixel shader. Now, I don't know if for Skyrim they chose a forward or deferred rendering approach, but either way they have access to the object normals (deferred shading would provide the normals for "free" from the G-buffer, so *crosses fingers*). In this case the pertinent information could be summed up as "What surfaces in this scene point toward the sky?" This approach is used for all kinds of things and is usually called "splatting", e.g. where to procedurally generate a cliff texture based on terrain slope. This usually involves textures though, and not pixel shaders, so it's not quite "splatting", I guess.
ExamplesYou can see this kind of snow shader in Crysis Warhead. There are plenty of Youtube videos of it in action. It's "realistic" but certainly not physically accurate. And, just as described in the GI article, the snow in this game is NOT a premade texture and uses what I described above to "place" the snow in the scene.
CollisionsWhen it comes to colliding with objects like people, the ground, etc., well, I doubt there are any collisions at all. The resources involved with tracking every particle, and keeping it around, accumulating it, calculating the physics for snow-snow collisions, and collisions with other objects is just not likely given the expense of calculating collisions for hundreds of thousands (millions, billions, etc) of particles on screen 30-60 times a second.
I expect at most the snow particles will terminate upon hitting the ground and *maybe* large objects like buildings. This is LIKE collisions, but the particles won't stick around and react physically -- they terminate. But I know nothing of their collision detection setup.. if they use bounding spheres or boxes it would be completely unusable for snow particle termination, you'd literally see the bounding sphere/box because the particles would vanish a far way away from the actual object. If they use bounding meshes (closely formed to the shape of the object) then *maybe*. Without collision termination the particles would appear to move through solid objects in certain circumstances, like a high speed wind blowing snow nearly horizontally would appear to go right through houses, etc, at the right viewing angles.
I expect they will at LEAST terminate particles when you are under overhangs. That is *very* simple not even requiring a bounding box or sphere, but a simple collision plane that covers the overhang approximately. I'm fairly certain they will have done this after the Oblivion nonsense with rain and snow.
Volumetric?So will the snow be volumetric? I am guessing not but I will not say "No" for certain. It's quite expensive to implement though... I don't think it's been done in any realtime game. Even in Crysis Warhead, I don't think it is in any way volumetric because that would mean it would have to be creating extra geometry or using shells/fins (fur and grass shaders, not suited for snow) or something like voxels all which are computationally prohibitive for realtime, at least at a decent resolution for something as fine as snow... Nor does it look remotely volumetric either.
It's not impossible, however. If they happened to be extra generous and support DirectX 11 on PC, AND code extra shaders for this, they could combine the surface normal "splatting" as seen in Crysis with decal tessellation. Decal tessellation implementations I've seen usually go the "other way" meaning
dents, specifically dynamic car dents, but I don't see why it couldn't be used for bumps, like snow buildup. It could then maybe be built up over time, as snow continues to fall, and dissipate (sublimate, since most of Skyrim is probably too cold to let snow melt =p) over time.
Volumetric FeasibilityBut, I doubt the method I just outlined or any like it will make it into the game. I know they develop for the "bottom line" first, which is $$$ from Xbox 360 sales, but that obviously doesn't rule out *all* progressive enhancements for PC users. DirectX 11 is actually easier to support backwards-compatibility-wise than DirectX 10 because it introduced "Feature Levels", and, barring Windows XP support (Gah!) they could still support down to DirectX 9 from the same codebase as long as the DirectX runtimes on Windows Vista/7 were up to date.
"Accumulation" without Volumetric SnowThe last important question, then, if the snow is not volumetric will it accumulate? Well, yes and no. It will appear to, if the snow shader has an intensity component, ranging from "Light Dusting" to "Fully covered" for the game to dynamically slide between based on how bad the weather is and how long the snow lasts. I'm not sure of how "dynamic" the snow shader is in Crysis Warhead but I assume it has something like this.
Conclusion and TL;DR VersionSo, I hate to be realistic, but I don't think the way the GI information has been conveyed and perceived is really anything like reality, and has in fact gotten quite out of hand. I don't expect to be able to trudge through knee-deep snow, but I would sure like to. I imagine instead we will get at most decals on the ground which make it appear we've left our footprints in the snow, but this is simply a normal-mapped 2D texture.
I'll end with an anolysis of the sentence from GI, for the TL;DRs
Snow falls naturally onto the stones and branches, appearing not as a preset texture, but falling exactly as it would onto that object given its shape and size.
This really doesn't even mean what it's been made out to by people who blow things out of proportion. "Snow falls naturally ... exactly as it would ... given [the object's] shape and size" means that the shape the snow (collectively, not snow particles) makes after it has fallen looks realistic given the object's shape (read: surface normals as mentioned above). It does not in any way imply that for every snow particle on screen each one falls in a physically correct manner, and accumulates, and sticks around via a vast physics particle simulation.
Combine that with the hyperbole in the few sentences above: "Every object in the world casts a perfectly formed shadow" ... Something which is not possible given today's hardware in realtime situations, and BTW, even crude shadows are still quite expensive to do despite what everyone on this forum thinks, it becomes clear that we've fallen victim to some hyperbolic writing, that while still accurate enough, gets blown out of proportion by people who either don't read well or don't have the amount of knowledge I do about rendering 3D games.