This quest is notorious.
The very best way to ensure that it does not bug out on you is to do it straight out of Helgen.
Trigger it by walking from Windhelm stables to the nearest farmhouse and back three times, enter the city at night.
Follow the guide on the http://www.uesp.net/wiki/Skyrim:Blood_on_the_Ice, doing things out of order might muck it up.
Since you're already a bit along in your game you could try breaking into Hjerim and seeing if you can pick up the quest from there, by investigating for clues.
It's not guaranteed to work, but it's worth a shot.