I returned to my main settlement and found a brahman piled up with supplies. When I approached the trader beside it a series of chat options came up. One was "Give me your money" which I hit by mistake. She gave me 50 caps but, now the caravan trader only says "I'm paid up, leave me alone" and no options appear.
I didn't realize what I'd done until much later so I can't restore a save. I think I may have screwed up my only chance at getting a caravan set-up, or are there other options of getting this done?