» Wed Oct 07, 2009 10:15 pm
Actually a full scale nuclear conflict is NOT out of the realms of probability. Look, right now our relations with the Sov..er Russians are rather strained, to say the least. Moscow (and by that I mean the KGB Strongman that is in charge) is going out of his way to do help third world dictators that would like nothing better than to tweak the US's nose. Iran, N. Korea and Pakistan are developing long range delivery systems for their existing nukes (While the US would be out of range of most of these, our allies would not.) And lets not forget about China. The Chinese play the long game better than anyone else and right now, they see that their "star" (pun intended) is on the rise, and that the US is weaker now than at any time since perhaps the great depression.
Now, let me translate that into a real world situations that could lead to a total nuclear exchange.
Our Happy Little Iranian Friends
The Russians, if I recall correctly have (or will soon sign) a mutual defence treaty with Tehran. Meaning, much like we are obligated to help defend Israel the Ruskies are now obligated to help defend Iran if attacked. Lets be politically correct here, we could either have the madman of Tehran emboldened by this treaty and lob a nuke at Tel Aviv or we can say the IDF decides to take out the Iranian nuclear factories via airstike and Iran retaliates. Either way, we have cities in the middle east turned to glass. Now, at this point the US would be forced to step in and try to defend Israel, and it has been our policy since Reagan that an attack with a WMD is to be answered in kind (MAD sadly doesn't work with madmen. Say what you want about the Soviets, they understood how the game was played) If we DIDN'T, well... bad things happen when treaties are ignored... your allies can't trust you and you end up standing alone. The Russians know this too, so for every buildup in forces we make they would be forced to match. There would be a mistake. There ALWAYS is a mistake. We accidental hit one of their bases, they shoot down one of our planes. There is an escalation of hostilities... and then some fool releases a tactical weapon. Once that happens.... commanders panic, and our civilian leaders don't know what to do. More tactical weapons are used in theater, then they start to hit other targets, Staging bases in the gulf, maybe we hit one or two bases in the former Soviet republics.
Now the military is scared, we go to a condition called Launch On Alert, which means we fire off our weapons if we THINK there is an attack inbound.
At this point the middle east is a radioactive wasteland, but now the beast is feeding on itself. And that is when someone does something very very very stupid. It can be the Russians hitting a strategic communications center in the continental US, or the US taking out a supply depot in the motherland. It doesn't matter. At that point, the homeland has been attacked, and the missiles fly. In Moscow and Washington "important" people bug out as fast as they can, highways get jammed with people fleeing the cities as the EAS plays its dirge over every radio and TV station. Then, the first RVs detonates. These are about 5 miles above both countries so the EMP takes out civilian comms and power grids. Around Moscow, they light up they nuclear tipped ABMs to try to take down as many warheads as they can.
And this is the point where we all have a very bad day.
No doubt, the US and Russia will take the worst of it, but Europe is going to get hurt bad. Same with Asia and Australia (Lot of US facilities in Australia).
Its always a very comforting thought that the sanity of Ahmadinejad is a key to global annihilation.