Nice try. Check the number of units of Oblivion sold, then check the number of people subscribed to these forums. The
total forum population is still one fairly skimpy cross-section of a small subset of the most biased TES players, and the number of
those people who think the cheezy romance-novel-plotline-rejects that get passed off as "romances" in CRPGs are worthwhile is an even smaller subset of
that group.
As you say, the membership of these forums is small and biased. Unless you have access to some other information, you are only guessing as to
which way the forums are biased. Without that information, the only sensible thing to do is to put your guesses aside and simply go by what actually appears here.
Now, those who want romance of some form or another are clearly in a minority, but judging by the number of posts in favour, the polls, and the number of times these threads crop up, I think it's something like 10% to 30% of the fanbase who'd be in favour. There might be more in favour among the mainstream audience, there might be fewer.
You think? I'd bet that if we could split reality into two identical timelines and do a "double blind" test, we'd find the difference in units sold between Universe A (with well-developed Harlequin Romance plotline included) and Universe B (without shoehorned-in Harlequin Romance plot gimmick) would be so small as to fall within the margin of error.
Could be. In which case, though, why would any game have any sort of romance in at all? Developers are, lets face it, planning to stay in business. Publishers even more so. They're not going to repeatedly and persistently put in a tricky and potentially expensive feature that makes absolutely no difference to sales.
Now, if you'd limited that observation to genres that have traditionally had no character interaction, and who's core audience don't expect it, then I might concede the point (though you'd still have to explain away Alyx Vance
). But TES is, after all, an RPG. That puts it in an area of the games market where romances are, if not traditional, at least familiar.
Seriously, look at every "If [game] [has/doesn't have] [plotelement/feature/spears/boss monsters/playable Sloads] then I'm [not buying it/never buying anything Bethesda again]!!one!!" post and tell me how likely it is that any one element is going to make a noticeable difference in sales, especially in a market where "I'm a gamer" means "I rip through every game released beginning to end in record time, then sell it to Gamestop to finance my addiction?"
Sales aren't hurt by verbose ranters. But they are hurt by hundreds of thousand of people deciding that a game isn't quite what they're looking for. And frankly, games aren't going to make all (or even most) of their money being sold to gamers. They are, based on demographic trends in gaming, increasingly going to make their money being sold to young-ish (20 to 40) mums and dads who buy few games and have only a few hours a week to play them. http://www.theesa.com/facts/index.asp, while not being the last word on the subject, should give you pause for thought when you consider whose dollars the publishers are looking to attract.
Lengthy experience suggests to me they don't have the caliber of writers needed, and that this will remain the case given how long it's been the case that their own forums are full of posts about what other companies to look to if one wants decent writing. :shrug:
Now that I can agree on, and it's one of the reasons that (much as I would like one) I don't believe there will be any romance in Skyrim. Bethesda probably know better than to make fools of themselves by trying something they have no experience and possibly no expertise in.