Realistically Skyrim is a "direct sequel." It may not be a "true sequel," in the sense that you play the same protagonists, or the events of the previous game are left undone. However, it is a direct sequel in the sense that it is a chronological sequel and is impacted by the events of Oblivion. With each TES, there is some form of connection and chronological jump. They aren't completely separate and disjointed. There is a strategy to what Bethesda does, and each new game builds upon the last (whether through easter eggs in the game, or various other forms of references).
Well yes, all Elder Scrolls games impact on each other. It needs to in order for the lore to make any sense what-so-ever. I was under the assumption that you were thinking that it a true sequel. But yes of course it will be a chronological sequel as are all of the ES games. The empire will still not have a Septim at its throne. Morrowind will be the same as in the book(i'm expecting anyways) ect.