I actually have a reason to disagree. I think it may still manage to be a 2010 release. Think of this, all we have for the next Zelda game is a single piece of concept art and the assurance that it will be shown in full at E3 for the first time, yet it's been claimed by Iwata that it will come by the next october, still in 2010. I think people are learning Fable's lessons for them, to only announce something when you're reasonably close to done, and that bethesda may do the same thing, stunning everyone with a huge E3 announcement for TESV due by Christmas 2010.
Well, maybe.
Well, think about it this way. When they announced Oblivion, they kept developing it for more than a year until it was released. If they announced it in
late 2010, they would have been working on it for almost 2 years, and if they released it a year later, in fall of 2011, they'll have been working on it for 3 years, which is similar to how long they spent on their other games. But honestly, I don't see a 2010 release as being likely. Because we didn't get an announcement in 2009, we wont get a release in 2010. Bethesda always, always waits until a year or longer after an announcement to release a game.
IMO, there is absolutely no chance of a 2010 release. An announcement, sure, but not a release.