The next generation of consoles, or at least the next Xbox, WONT be coming out in 2011 or 2012. Read http://xbox360.ign.com/articles/105/1059470p1.html. Microsoft says they don't think they're halfway through this generation yet. Which makes sense, considering Natal will be extending the lifespan of the 360 for quite a bit. The Xbox 360 was released in 5 years ago, so if Microsoft thinks they aren't even halfway through this generation yet, that means we have absolutely no reason to think that TESV will be made for the next generation of consoles.
I agree with you that TESV won't be on a new console generation, but you can't take what Microsoft say about the current gen lifespan as fact. It's obviously not true, as it's a crazy business decision. If Microsoft waits a full ten years to release a new console after the 360, the the court is wide open for sony to release the PS4 and secure a HUGE playerbase. Consoles are almost 5 years old now, making them pretty ancient when compared to top PC specs. If they wait another 5 years... that's ridiculous. They might say they're waiting a full decade before starting a new gen, but I guarantee both Microsoft and Sony are planning out a next gen console release in 2-3 years. Natal and Sony's 'Gem' will extend the console lifespan for a little while, but considering Natal leeches 10% of the 360's processing power, top rated games could even look slightly
worse than the big-hitters like Modern Warfare 2 and Assassin's Creed 2 if they utilize motion control.
I'm betting this year's E3 will bring information on Bethesda's next big game, and the following year's E3 will bring information on the next console generation, starting the hype-train. Also worth keeping in mind: the first console launched performs the best if the last two generations are anything to go by: PS2 outselling XBOX, and 360 outselling PS3 (ignoring the Wii since it has a different customer base overall). People are eager to grab a piece of a new console generation, and will snap up the first console released regardless of fan-based loyalties in most cases.