» Mon Oct 12, 2009 4:47 am
So, timeline for Bethesda would be:
2002: Morrowind completes, they begin working on Oblvion.
2004: Trademark for Oblivion filed, work on Fallout 3 begins. Todd Howard is working on both.
2006: Oblivion released. Trademarks for Skyrim filed almost 11 months later. Team goes to do?
2007: Shivering Isle's released, team goes to do?
2008: Fallout 3 released. Team goes onto to (next big project)
2009: Fallout DLC completed, team goes onto? Possible Wii game intimated. "New Elderscrolls might be ready by as early as 2010."
Elderscrolls novel released. Other "Oblivion related" new promised, never delivered.
2010: Possible Natal game intimated, unknown if Beth is publishing or developing. Todd Howard announces technical upgrades to engine for "next big game". "Bethesda related announcements" promised in next few weeks. Elderscrolls trivia starts appearing on the Bethesda blog.
Ok, take whatever you want from that. Facts to note: Howard has worked on more than 1 game at a time before. Executives of parent companies aren't known to be out of the loop about what's going on in their companies. The Elderscrolls has come up more and more from Beth; and finally they obviously have at least 2 teams worth of employees working on stuff.
My take: Whatever Wii game they or an affiliate has been working has been designed from the ground up to use motion control. Since Natal has been announced, they figured why not go multiplatform since motion control can now be used cross-platform?
Secondly, it's not only not unknown but has become almost common for studios to upgrade their engines mid development; especially for long term projects. Therefor I posit that work on the Eldercrolls 5 has been going on for a while. However a lot of people always point out how quickly Oblivion and Fallout 3 fell behind on looks. Secondly reviews stating obvious problems with the animation in both games, and (No, I won't say how I know this) artists that work for Bethesda complaining about limited technical tools, especially related to animation, all combine to something.
I think a team has been working on the game since as early as well, early 2006. They got their concepts like location and etc. down by the end of the year and thus the trademarks. However many employees were shifted towards Fallout 3/Oblivion DLC and so it was a relatively small team that was working on the game. Slowly the size of the team has ramped up since then. However, upon the release of Fallout 3 they have decided to shift some of the design of TES V based on reviews and fan reaction to Fallout 3.
Howard and others decided to, among other things, work on a large upgrade to the Bethesda engine. Since a lot of employees were shifted from Fallout 3 finishing to the TES team they'd have plenty more resources. Since Fallout 3 sold fairly well they probably decided they had the financial resources to expand the design as well. Towards the end of 2009, with 3 years of development under it's belt, they were starting to think of announcing the game. However something happened to the marketing team. They delayed it until positions, including a new community manager, could come on board. Now that that's done they restarted the initial marketing buildup for the game.
I.E. we'll see the game announced this year, and things like the trivia and Howard on the podcast are little hints to get the hardcoe fans excited and starting spreading rumors via word of mouth. We'll probably get an announcement and maybe a magazine exclusive before some big all media encompassing showoff at E3 or similar. Depending on how far along they are they'll announce a release date or window, at earliest this holiday season, at latest "sometime" 2011. Not to deliver a blow to anyone, but don't believe the [censored] MS and Sony put out about "not even being halfway through this console cycle". It's a marketing tactic to not scare people away from buying their motion control systems. We'll see a new console, or at least announcement by 2012. I based off market anolysts and comments from technical directors of major studios like Epic (Unreal Engine).