1. "The High King of Skyrim has been murdered, triggering a civil war among the Nords" and blah blah blah. Right off the bat, a king is murdered. http://www.uesp.net/wiki/Oblivion:Oblivion!
2. Dragons show up all over the damn place. Sounds like something that's http://www.uesp.net/wiki/Oblivion:Oblivion_Gate http://www.uesp.net/wiki/Shivering:Obelisk_of_Order http://fallout.wikia.com/wiki/Enclave_Camps!
3. The main character is a Dragonborn, just like Tiber Septim. Characters in Oblivion often refer to the Septim dynasty as having "dragon's blood"
3a. Martin Septim, evidentally, was a Dragonborn as well, as at the end of the game,
So, basically, I'm wondering if Skyrim is basically an answer to the fan complaints about being Martin's sidekick. And, instead of giving us something completely original, we've got ourselves another "god of destruction sends his minions to destroy the world" quest, dressed up to look pretty and new, but with ultimately, the only difference being that we're Martin this time around instead of the Champion of Cyrodiil.