EDIT 2: Viola Giordano and Arivanya are essential NPCs for the Blood on the Ice quest, but they are not immortal by default. If either of them is dead, the quest is broken. For anyone experiencing problems triggering this quest, if you complete the three steps listed below and the quest does not activate, check Windhelm's Hall of the Dead and see if there are remains for Viola Giordano, Tova Shatter-Shield, or Arivanya... look for their keys in the coffins or perhaps in your inventory if you've killed one or more of them and forgotten (Arivanya's key would be the Windhelm Stables Key). I don't know if Silda, Calixto, Wuunferth, Jorleif, Susanna can be killed, but they are involved with this quest as well, so check for their remains while you're there.
With your help, this survey could determine the cause of the glitch that prevents Blood on the Ice from triggering. Please help!
In order to determine whether or not you truly have the Blood on the Ice glitch (that is, you cannot trigger this quest by viewing Windhelm's graveyard crime scene, or by reading a Beware the Butcher pamphlet), please try these three easy steps to see if you actually have this glitch:
1. Travel to Windhelm, wait until 8pm, then go to the House of Clan Shatter-Shield and pickpocket the Key to Hjerim from Tova Shatter-Shield.
2. Enter Hjerim, open the wardrobe with the false back panel, then read and take Butcher's Journal #2.
3. Leave the secret room, turning right and checking the small shelf with the pamphlets. Read and take one of the Beware the Butcher pamphlets.
If you complete step 3 and see "STARTED: BLOOD ON THE ICE - follow up on clues from Hjerim," then good news - you can complete this quest! At this point, PLEASE list as much information as possible about your character, including skill levels, quests completed, and anything else you possibly can. If you would like more information about how to complete this quest from this point, there is more information posted below, but please take the time to at least list the quests that your character has completed.
If you haven't started or completed Blood on the Ice, haven't seen the graveyard crime scene, and cannot activate this quest by reading a Beware the Butcher pamphlet as described in step 3, I believe you have the glitch. At this point, PLEASE list as much information as possible about your character, including skill levels, quests completed, and anything else you possibly can.
Thank you.
---
How to complete Blood on the Ice after starting the quest by reading from the Beware the Butcher pamphlet:
My first character completed the MQ, Thieves, and was partially through the Stormcloak Civil War... 120 hours. The second was based off the first character's six minute save as a prisoner. No major quests... 20 hours. Both ran with the Imperial in the beginning. The third character was created from a new game file. I ran with the Stormcloak to Riverwood, kept going to Whiterun, and took a carriage to Windhelm. I waited until 8pm and went to the Shatter-Shield home, pickpocketed the Key to Hjerim from Tova, and went immediately to Hjerim. Upon entering Hjerim, as I had tried with all of my characters, nothing happened. I walked around and found the object-errors known as "Investigate InvestigationTarget" (this appears when the quest has not yet been activated - those of you who enter Hjerim prior to starting the quest will see this in various places on the first floor). These cannot be activated or used. I opened the false back panel of the wardrobe, read and took Butcher Journal #2, walked out of the secret room to the right, read and took a Beware the Butcher pamphlet. IMPORTANT - taking the Beware the Butcher pamphlet will start the quest Blood on the Ice with the objective: follow up on the clues from Hjerim (this is farther in than the quest usually starts), but just reading it will not. There is no descriptive text for the objective (like in Unbound where it says, "I have escaped both my execution and a dragon attack at Helgen...). After this quest started, all of those "Investigate InvestigationTarget" object-errors were replaced by actual dialogue boxes, which would be clues for the player to discover. You don't actually need to investigate the clues at this point, but you can if you'd like... just beware of what I describe in NOTE 3.
NOTE 2: If you ever plan on picking up the Strange Amulet, do it before talking with Jorleif, or it will forever be stuck in your inventory as a quest item. Prior to accusing Wuunferth, you can sell it to Calixto for 500 gold. In doing so, when you kill Calixto and loot his body, the Strange Amulet becomes the Necromancer's Amulet, a more valuable enchanted amulet that looks just as cool... and you can drop it.
NOTE 3 - EXTREMELY IMPORTANT NOTE, IF THIS IS IGNORED, YOU MIGHT CAUSE CALIXTO TO BECOME IMMORTAL: Once you trigger the Blood on the Ice quest by taking the Beware the Butcher pamphlet, there will be an invisible trigger on the floor at the interior front door that activates the objective "look for clues"- DO NOT STEP ON THIS. That step is only resolved by a one-time taking of a Beware the Butcher pamphlet, and since that was already activated, you will be screwed. What you must do is hug the wall that the front door is on, but stay as far away from the door as possible while still being able to leave. If you can activate the door, do it... this should allow you to avoid the invisible trigger. Note that you should never re-enter Hjerim until this quest is complete, because entering Hjerim places you directly on that invisible trigger. IF YOU DO NOT HEED THESE WORDS, RESTORE A SAVED GAME TO RESTORE THE WEAVE OF FATE, OR PERSIST IN THE DOOMED WORLD YOU HAVE CREATED.
Here are the simplified step-by-step instructions:
1. Wait until 8pm, then go to the House of Clan Shatter-Shield and pickpocket the Key to Hjerim from Tova Shatter-Shield.
2. Enter Hjerim, open the wardrobe with the false back panel, then read and take Butcher's Journal #2.
3. Leave the secret room, turning right and checking the small shelf with the pamphlets. Read and take one of the Beware the Butcher pamphlets. Take the Strange Amulet ONLY if you plan on selling it to Calixto before step 5, or it will be permanently stuck in your inventory. Avoid the invisible trigger in front of the interior door to Hjerim (see NOTE 3). QUEST: Blood on the Ice - follow up on clues from Hjerim.
4. Talk with Viola Giordano about the killer's journal. To find Viola, go to the exterior west side of Candlehearth Hall and wait until sometime around 11am (if not, try 2pm-3pm). QUEST: Blood on the Ice - talk to Jorleif.
5. Go to the Palace of the Kings and talk to Jorleif about accusing Wuunferth the Unliving as the killer. QUEST COMPLETED: Blood on the Ice.
6. Fast-travel to another distant town (e.g., Riverwood), wait 72 hours, and then fast-travel back to Windhelm.
7. Look along the exterior west side of Candlehearth Hall for the body of Arivanya. If it is not there, repeat step 6. (Note: if you travel directly to Windhelm, her body may not immediately appear... when it didn't show up, I ran around the southwestern market and through the graveyard, and Arivanya's body was suddenly there... a more consistent method is needed. Body found at 10:22am, 12:26pm, 2:13am...) Once her body appears there, talk with the guard. QUEST: Blood on the Ice - speak to Wuunferth.
8. Go to the Palace of the Kings, then enter the first door on the right to the Windhelm Barracks. Wuunferth is in the second cell from the left (follow your objective marker). Tell him that the killer has struck again, then talk about his assistance, and finally talk about the evidence. QUEST: Blood on the Ice - patrol the streets of the Stone Quarter at night.
9. Go outside and wait until midnight, then go to the southwestern market. Calixto should be in the process of murdering Hillevi Cruel-Sea... if he's not there, be patient... he's coming. When his blade is drawn, you can attack him without breaking the law. QUEST: Blood on the Ice - catch the murderer.
10. Kill Calixto. QUEST: Blood on the Ice - speak to Jorleif for reward.
11. Go to the Palace of the Kings and wait until around 9am, then tell Jorleif that Calixto was the real killer. QUEST COMPLETED: Blood on the Ice. At this point, with a new character, I am still unable to purchase Hjerim. Perhaps more questing will make it so.
---
NOTE 4: The first two times I tested these instructions, I did not pick up the Strange Amulet. The third and fourth times, I picked up the Amulet, and sold it to Calixto. However, the third time, I stepped on the invisible trigger mentioned in NOTE 3, and it was the only time I was unable to complete the quest.
NOTE 5: When I went to test this on my other previously "glitched" character (no major quests, 20 hours in, based off of the six-minute Prisoner save file of my first character), I waited until 8pm in Windhelm, started running toward the Shatter-Shield house... and found the graveyard scene! I completed that quest legitimately and by-the-book, while sticking to the same steps I described above once I reached that point. It appears that the end result is the same for both the "pamphlet" and "graveyard" versions of this quest. (Necromancer's Amulet, favor of the Windhelm guards, but no home to purchase).
NOTE 6: My first character (MQ complete, Thieves Guild complete, partially through Stormcloak Civil War, 120 hours) with the glitch has the option to buy the house due to progression in the Stormcloak Civil War, but can't because of "unpleasantness". I pickpocketed the key, but was unable to activate the quest. I will test this character more in the future, once I complete the quest. Then, if that works, I will try the Dark Brotherhood, although it may be impossible.
NOTE 7: Interestingly, after getting the "follow up on the clues from Hjerim" objective, there is in fact the dead body of Susanna the Wicked in the graveyard! It is on the southeasternmost gravestone.
---
Theories that have arisen about the cause of this glitch:
From "eacaraxe" on another forum:
Alternatively, you can pick up the amulet and after speaking to Viola, go to Calixto. He'll tell you Wuunferth did it. Make sure to sell the amulet at this point or it will permanently be stuck in your inventory.
At this point, you can go to Jorleif or Wuunferth. Confronting Wuunferth, he tells you that a necromancer is responsible and the next murder should be that evening. That'll take you straight to the "patrol Stone Quarter at night" update. If/when you kill Calixto then, you can loot the Necromancer's Amulet (don't beat on Hadvar just yet, it svcks) from his inventory.
Now in regards to many of the glitches with this quest, it's my impression Radiant AI is the culprit. It's about the spawning scripts that control quest progress in certain levels not running, and to fix them you'll want to re-enter the Windhelm cell so they run properly. Otherwise, the NPC's involved will never go to the locations they're supposed to be on their own (for many of them, it's because they have no reason to go to those locations, whatever the NPC wants they can get closer by).
I disagree with the Radiant AI theory. On my level 61 character with the MQ, Thieves Guild, and now Civil War completed, I cannot trigger the quest by reading the pamphlet, whereas the two other characters could. This seems to indicate that there may be another trigger that prevents the Blood on the Ice script from functioning.
---
Again, your input would be instrumental in solving this mystery. Please help!