» Fri Aug 06, 2010 5:17 am
There is only one MMO that I will ever play and that is Everquest. I play Elder Scrolls BECAUSE it is not an MMO. I've been there and done that and there is nothing they can do that woud impress me. While your at it, might as well pay to play Call of Duty online! So sick of all you pepole and your MMO talk. For the love of god just drop it!
On the other hand, Zenimax Online is (likely) working on the much rumored ES MMO, and I cant help but think (know) its going to fail. It probably wont have a broken formula, but there are too many loyal players of other MMOs. WoW as a reported 11 million. Now think that 8 million copies of Oblivion were sold across all 3 platforms (its likely wasnt that many but I'm being a little generous)
Assume 4 million for PC and 4 million split between PS3 and 360. Neither PS3 nor 360 have a dedicated MMO base outside of Final Fantasy. That eliminates 4 million fans because if they wanted to play on a PC then they would have bought ES on PC.
2 Million or so ES PC fans played the series from the beginning, so they stick with the PC version. That leaves 2 million left for PC. Assume 1 million of those fans play WoW and likely wont be leaving it to play another (likely ripoff and less stellar ES MMO). Thats 1 million fans...Worldwide.
Assume 100 million for dev costs and beta testing (give or take). If 1 million people at launch bougth the game ($50 plus monthly fees), your looking at recuopping nearly the dev costs. However, that does not include advertising and constanst updates. Assume some of those players dont like the game, which would be around half. 500,000 for a few months and then the fan base drops again. After 1 year, your looking at 200,000 active monthly players (at most).
APB had more players and it failed miserably. Just looking at statistics and industry anolysis (plus the poll), an ES MMO is gonna be an ultimate failure.