Actually, you can't do the calculation assuming the character has a 0% crit rate.
Give him a 30% crit rate, which is super easy to get (some Medium Armor, Duel Wield, Khajiit, Precise Traits).
Pre change 30% crit
70 hits * 1 damage = 70 damage
30 hits * 1.65 damage = 49.5 damage
119.5 total damage
Post change 33% crit
67 hits * 1 damage = 67 damage
33 hits * 1.5 damage = 49.5 damage
116.5 total damage
- If you had 30% crit chance before and have no other sources of crit damage improvement, the change results in a 2.5% reduction in damage output. Small, but noticeable.
Pre change 40% crit
60 hits * 1 damage = 60 damage
40 hits * 1.65 damage = 66 damage
122 total damage
Post change 43% crit
57 hits * 1 damage = 57 damage
43 hits * 1.5 damage = 64.5 damage
121.5 total damage
- If you had 40% crit before and have no other sources of crit damage improvement, it's about the same, with the post change resulting in a very slight reduction.
It's close enough to say that it's basically a wash on total damage. Carnage crit chance only applies to melee attacks, whereas the old Carnage also gave 15% extra crit damage to everything. Since it's basically a wash on total damage, ZOS dealt with the overpowered part of Carnage (spell crits dealing 15% more damage) while leaving it pretty much unchanged otherwise.