» Thu Nov 26, 2015 3:56 pm The following information, based on many hours of research, will show very clearly that not only is a pre-war tutorial almost inevitable, but that our protagonist will almost certainly be one of the parents from the beginning of the trailer. The full trailer can be seen https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GE2BkLqMef4.
1. The amount of pre-war footage in the trailer will have taken a great deal of time, money and effort to create. This would only have made sense if it was intended to be used in-game at some point, and not just in the trailer. This could be in the form of memories or flashbacks, but would also work very well as a playable section of the game. All of the locations shown during the pre-war sections cover a relatively small area, and would therefore be perfectly suited for use in a self-contained tutorial. If you doubt this, think of how many first-person shooters are set outside but contain "closed" levels. One way this could be implemented is the military presence in the town - martial law prior to war outbreak would severely restrict civilian movements.
2. If we take the pre-war elements of the trailer and look at them as a whole, we can see a very clear sequence of events: First, a couple with a baby in what appears to be their home. Radio broadcasts describe the build up to war, culminating in reports of nuclear detonations. Next we see a number of people evacuating the town, as well as a tank, and a vertibird flying overhead in the direction of the vault. Shortly after, we see several people outside the vault gates, which are being guarded by three soldiers, one of whom has a clip-board. There are also two vault security guards and three other official looking people in the area beyond the gate. Next, we see the lift above vault 111 with a soldier, a third vault security guard, and a scientist carrying another clip-board. There are a large number of vault-tec boxes and crates in this area. Finally, we see five civilians waiting above the lift, who are quickly joined by the family from the beginning of the trailer. And then we see the bomb go off in the distance.
3. Many people have claimed that nobody standing above the vault could have survived this blast, yet in August 1945, a 29 year-old man managed to survive both atomic blasts in Japan. In each case, he was less than two miles from the blast. Although he sustained injuries from the first blast, he suffered no injuries from the second. Following the detonation in Nagasaki, he spent a week in a shelter with his wife and baby son (note the similarity to the family waiting above the vault). He died in 2010 at the age of 93. See http://www.theguardian.com/world/2010/jan/06/hiroshima-nagasaki-survivor-dies for further details.
4. As one group of fans has already established, the distance between ground zero and vault 111 would be very similar to those described above, given the scale of the map. Also, according to fallout lore, low-yield nuclear weapons were used during the great war. This suggests a very real possibility that at least some of the civilians standing above vault 111 could have survived the blast. They are also in a better position to get to safety than most, given their current location. Note that just before the blast, the couple with the baby are standing right near the centre of the lift, well inside the "stand within circle" markers written on the ground. The fan research, which also contains many other details of the possible map layout can be found http://imgur.com/gallery/lFIxR/new?forcedesktop=1.
Edit: if we look at the electric pylons in the distance at the time of the explosion, we can see the blast wave pass over them and they are still intact, which effectively proves that we are outside of the lethal blast radius.
5. Several people have argued that even if anyone did survive, the vault door could not be re-opened at this time due to safety protocols that would kick-in once the door is sealed. Yet all indications point to the fact that the door to vault 111 has not even been opened yet, and so none of the safety protocols would be active. In the shot where we see the dog walking on top of the vault, there is what looks like a control mechanism for the lift with a red circular handle in front of a white lever. But in the next shot during pre-war, the red handle has not yet been placed, and is probably still in one of the containers that are visible. It has clearly been used at some point however, as it is in the post-war shot. In addition, the whole reason that the security guard, the soldier, and the scientist with the clip-board would have been there would be to confirm entitlement and then escort civilians into the vault. We clearly have at least eight potential inhabitants waiting to be allowed access at the time of the explosion.
6. The scenes where we see various aspects of post-war Boston take up a mere 29 seconds of the trailer! The rest of what we are shown seems very clearly to be based around the dog, the vault, and the couple with the baby. It is likely that the dog will play a very big part in overall gameplay, and that we will encounter him/her fairly early on. This fact is supported by the strong connections made during the pre/post war elements of the trailer.
7. The protagonist who we see in the closing scenes is identical to the man we see at the start and also standing above the vault. In fact, there is literally a split-second just before the flash from the explosion where you can clearly see his face - it's definitely the same guy! As for the part that this particular vault plays in all of this, it is likely that the player character was put into cryogenic sleep and awoken decades or even centuries later. Again, this had even been suggested before the release of the trailer. Given the character likeness as described above, this is clearly more than just coincidence. Also, note that in the source-code for the countdown timer before the trailer was released, there is mention of a "system failure" which could be related to our being woken from cryosleep. And finally, with regards to be able to choose either a male or female protagonist, we already have two perfect candidates as shown at the start of the trailer, as well as a lot of potential for plot development in the main game.
The character likeness can be seen more clearly in http://imagizer.imageshack.us/a/img540/4378/YSGU4f.jpg, courtesy of LateWhiteRabbit.
We can also see the same person in http://images.techtimes.com/data/images/full/92628/vault-111.jpg, taken just before the bomb detonates.
See http://kotaku.com/leaked-documents-reveal-that-fallout-4-is-real-set-in-1481322956 for references to the use of cryogenics and the leaked casting documents from 2013.
See also http://www.polygon.com/2015/6/2/8707443/fallout-4-teaser-site-bethesda for further details regarding the countdown timer.
EDIT:
Just to give you all another piece of the puzzle as it were, and to expand on the idea of our transition from pre-war into post-war, I have something else for you.
After much thought, I now firmly believe that our protagonist will be the only civilian survivor. I also believe that, although we may have been given the freedom to play as either parent up to this point, during this particular scene we must make an impossible choice. Whoever we decide to play as at this stage will live, and the other will not. Sadly, the fate of our child, as well as the remaining civilians and all but one of the vault personnel would be sealed. Out of necessity, we can surmise that the scientist would most likely be the only other survivor. At least one person would be required to initiate the vault experiment once we are inside:
As the vault door closes, we are quickly given medical assistance and are helped into a life-support chamber by the scientist. Our body feels numb from the blast, and our mind is scrambling to make sense of what is going on. Yet in spite of the horrors of what occurred and the injuries we sustained, our focus is suddenly brought to the chamber. Something is wrong. The door seals shut. We push against the inside of the chamber, but it is too late, the process has already started. We desperately try again to open the door in front of us, as an icy cold opaque liquid begins to fill the chamber. We start to panic, but we are helpless. As we slowly lose consciousness, the last thing we remember seeing is the scientist looking back at us through the glass window of the chamber. Vault-tec experiment protocol 111 has begun.
After what seems like an eternity we awaken, desperately choking and trying to catch our breath, metal tasting liquid pouring from our lungs. After a moment we are able to breathe more fully, but our awareness is still hazy. The door to the chamber opens, and we take a moment to get our bearings. A warning tone echoes through the vault, and an automated voice speaks repeatedly of a system failure. We step out of the chamber, our body still shivering. On the floor before us is a skeleton, it looks like it has been there for an age. We find the source of the alarm and manage to switch it off, and we are overwhelmed by the eerie silence. The bombs have stopped. Confused and disoriented, we search the vault for something to replace our soaking wet clothes. We find a blue jumpsuit. On the back is the number 111.
After a short while, we begin to realise that at some point we will have to venture outside. We think of those we have lost, and of the uncertain future that awaits us. Eventually, we pluck up the courage to approach the stairway leading down to the vault door. There is a panel in front of us with a single red button. We nervously press the button and the door suddenly springs into life. Light floods into the vault. At first we panic, and then we realise that it is sunlight. We gather what meagre supplies we were able to salvage and slowly make our way out into a circular lift shaft. In front of us is an old rusted lever. We push the level, and begin our slow ascent to the surface. Our thoughts begin to race. Should we have stayed inside the vault? Did anyone else survive? Then the lift stops, and our worst fear has been realised. As we take our first step forward, the world we see before us is most certainly not the one we left behind..
