I think I understood at least a little of that.
There seems to be a bug where a Settler has been replaced by a Synth.
This Synth will often not join in the attack, or even fight on the side of the Settlers.
Even if you kill all of the Raiders you will still technically have a Synth in your compound.
Therefore the game reads it as having been a successful attack because there was still a Synth alive when you left.
To make things even more fun, sometimes the Synth will in fact be one of your Brahmin. Seriously. I've killed one and found an Institute Pistol on the thing.
I have even come to suspect that some of your CROPS may in fact be Synths, as I've literally killed every other living thing in a settlement to find the Synth (saving first, of course ) and coming up empty. It may explain those Crops that suddenly cannot be interacted with in any way.
And the kicker is that, as of now, there is absolutely nothing you can do about it. Just let things fail and rebuild.
So this is messed up on a couple of levels for me.
I was following Paladin Danse through Arcjet labs when I'd get this 'Failed to Defend Covenant' message. I never got notified that it was being attacked, I even went back and redid this to make sure. So I went back to a saved game before I entered the building and fast traveled to Covenant to see what all the fuss was about.
I arrive to find a pretty big group of synths attacking the settlement. Now since I've got my game set to super max difficulty, I did have to reload this a couple of times to get a desirable outcome. You can check out how I take out like 8+ synths with a single Nuke Grenade:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GWmBOPbYrk4
As you can see in this video, once i kill the synths, I hear gunshots inside the settlement and i go in to find a dead settler with a synth component.
Now I already have an ongoing bug/glitch with Jacob in Covenant where I can't hear any audio (and mouth doesn't move) when he's talking so I have to stand and wait (making sure he finishes what he's saying OUTSIDE of the cinematic view) and then the dialogue options will appear. I only get the option to ask about the synth attack, and then he apparently says something and then the conversation is over.
I haven't progressed much beyond this point so I'm not sure if I'm going get a 'Failed to defend Covenant' message or not, but I definitely didn't get any kind of message after all the synths were killed, and there's still nothing in my Pip Boy about this synth situation at Covenant.
...feedback? (what the poop is goin on? xD)
All Jacob says to me now is the speil about looking out for Honest Dan....had a defense mission fail because he won't let me turn it in.
Synth attacks from the inside seem to be entirely broken. I arrive there, seemingly a settler is lying on the gorund and when looted, has some Synth part attached. That's it. You can stay there for days and no additional attack will happen. But you get the message of having failed.
The game goes to great pains to make you fail, if you're not present for an attack. And that's one instance where even that doesn't work.
Having the same issue, obviously not working as intended.
So I finally finished the quest I was working on and I check on Covenant in my Pip Boy and it shows 6 settlers (when i'm supposed to have 12), so I decide to fast travel there and check on them.
I get to Covenant and there's 12 settlers there, but like 80% of my stuff is broken, all the turrets, guard posts, most of the plants, most of the water pumps, etc., so I have to go around fixing everything, and some of the plants are glitched so I can't select them to repair them :/
I was able to get most of it fixed and back up to satisfactory operation, but what the poop is going on with the settlements and synth attacks? xD