While I agree that clearly the new mechanics have made such a transition, we have absolutely no idea whether Bethesda will dumb it down further than Fallout 3, stripping RPG mechanics, giving fewer choices, and whatnot. I know Skyrim merged some things, but we need to see the game itself to know whether it'd actually dumbed-down. I'm not expecting them to dumb down it extensively after New Vegas. Sure, they may change it, but that doesn't mean they'll dumb it down. We'll probably see more dynamics (a good thing), a "personal" storyline (according to some, this is a requirement for a good story :shakehead:), more exploration, more "epic" moments, lack of a proper ending, and perhaps even no level cap. Of course, this stuff would mostly svck. However, it does not necessarily translate to dumbed down mechanics and story. Being able to make a diverging and good storyline while representing choices without an ending would depend on how much they make the choices impact the game world (personally, I really want a lower-stakes Fallout game anyway). The level cap bit can also still allow for specialization and not being god by letting you cap by yourself whenever you want, or changing the leveling in a way that makes it so it's other wise optional. Exploration is a staple of Bethesda, and I honestly have no problem with it as long as the more important things (like quests and things with actual substance) are looked at first. With all of those things, none of them necessarily comes with the game being dumbed down. I just don't see them going back from New Vegas and stripping away things like reputation, crafting, grey writing, complicated questing, etc. It just seems foolish and those aren't what people generally complain about. Also, for all we know, Todd will eat his words about no level cap and no ending after seeing New Vegas and will change it accordingly. We'll just have to see in 2-5 years, I guess.
What is there to strip or to dumb down (oh, and dumbing down is now "removing confusion", keep that in mind
) anymore, though? The only thing that worked towards a real benefit, was the repair skill -- and even it was way off, since none of the other skills or even the condition effects were in balance with it.
I gotta hand it to you, I'd love to have your optimism. But the problem with Beth, is for most part exactly their "staple". They're so focused in that one thing and making sure everyone gets everything no matter what, that the other features (like the mechanics and stories) are left neglected (whether on purpose or not, I have no idea). They overdo that stuff (as they admit), and underdo the rest (which they also partly admit - as Todd has said, that building their worlds leads them to sacrifice a well placed story [for one example he gave] - and which is evident in their games anyway). I don't see them breaking that formula easily (as they didn't already with FO3).
There is some little hope left for FO4 to be a decent/semi-decent RPG, though (otherwise I'd have left a long time ago from these forums). But not much.
And I swear, if/when I finally hear Toddler say in an interview that, SPECIAL was just a middlehand, and that they are now removing confusion by cutting down and merging skills, and adding perktrees and iPhone interfaces, and that there is still complexity behind the screen (in an apologetic manner), my head will implode.