Great points nu_clear_day! Very good description of the different possible angles we might see in the next game.
It will indeed be quite interesting to see what Bethesda goes for in the next game.
In my view there are a couple of factors that stand out for me:
Given the number of bugs in the core engine now, combined with the new Id software they have access to, leads me to believe that we wont have the same engine in the next game. (i.e. we won't get an "upgraded" Fallout3 engine like we got with an upgraded Oblivion engine for Fallout3). I think this because in any large software project, which I work with every day (just not of the gaming variety), there definitely is a Pain Threshold for how far any company is willing to go for a specific software platform. The decisions on weather to dump Platform XX for a newer Platform YY is always done on business-grounds and is based on alot of indicators. How advanced XX is compared to other games, how easy XX is to modify for a new game, how expensive XX is to maintain and build on (where the bugs come into play), what's available for new technology today and how easily that can be ported into XX, licensing considerations and people costs for building a new engine, upgrading the old or making a cyborg of new and old. Its a dizzying array of factors really, but very few of them have anything whatever to do with how the game will come out (i.e. how much of an RPG versus FPS versus etc).
Based on all of that, my prediction given what little I know about Bethesda's current situation (tons of bugs, difficulty with game consoles, and the new Id code available), my view is that they wont go with an "Upgraded Fallout3 Engine". However nor do I think they will completely abandon it given how damn good it is compared to others, and that even other Gaming companies (Obsidian) was willing to forgo making any engine changes for New Vegas, but instead went with Fo3 and the GECK). The GECK makes Fo3 extremely powerful, both for other gaming companies but also for Bethesda's own ability to pump-out levels. I can tell you that in general the modding community Loves the GECK.
Thus my prediction is that we will get a Cyborg-style change from Bethesda, where they combine elements of Id's FPS code and 3D processing code with elements from the Fo3 code (stuff like the NAVM system, spell system maybe, Sound system, basic organization of objects perhaps with SpeedTree again, etc. Here I can't predict Which elements they will keep, but I am confident that in a new Cyborg-Engine Bethesda will be confident-enough in some of the features they have developed that they wont want to loose them. Some things I'm sure they will be glad to get away from, but some features are too good to give up when many aspects of Fo3 Technology work just fine for games. We'll see how close I come, but I predict we will get a new Cyborg engine that looks different and mostly works differently, but in which many aspects will "feel" familiar.
One big benefit for Bethesda is that by making a Cyborg they save money - lots of money. They save it on development costs they don't have to spend on a totally new engine, they save on QA costs and training costs because the aspects of the engine that they keep, they already know. They save on time as well, for the parts they keep will allow level-designers, artists, animators, etc to work within familiar bounds using technology they know. Most of all they save Time as a Cyborg goes together alot faster than a 100% new engine, and Time = Money. I for one would be very satified with a new Beth game that used the Id 3D engine and alot of their own technology, while scrapping some of the less-well-developed aspects. Another big benefit is that by bolting-togehter a new engine, they will find some of the old bugs they couldn't find before - and will eliminate others by dropping some aspects and code out of the old engine.
A downside They may make a few new bugs to be sure with a Cyborg, but the savings in cost will far out-weigh that risk IMHO - and as Beth has chosen to do in the past when it comes to bugs. I would actually consider Bethesda a "Bug Friendly Company" - in that bugs are not nearly as painful to Beth as they Seem to us as players. I mean despite the bugs, Beth knows that we Will still buy their products, enjoy their products and in general, the bugs don't make any Significant impact on earnings. So bugs are Okay, as long as the roar of complaints from the masses stay below some critical mass. I'm sure for some bugs that are major, they will take the time to fix and do put out regular releases. But in terms of allowing bugs around, I figure Bethesda rather spends their time making new product versus repairing the old product - even if it drives some players crazy.
I do predict that Beth will keep-up with the tradition of releasing a "GECK", as we modders actually do help them find bugs and I know Beth really enjoys some of the mods we come up with. I think Enclave Commander did more to win Todd Howards heart than any other mod, and will hopefully convince him that continuing to support their modding community is an investment worth making. I will stop short of making predictions over how much RPG or FPS we get in the new game, other than to say I love the RPG "open-world" concept alot more than FPS - I've played that to DEATH over the years. I hope for another Elder scrolls, but I'll take whatever they make!
Cheers,
Miax