And for more than half a dozen, it has to play somewhat better than https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rikTiT2OwqQ

Easily, although it will have strong competition from Bloodborne, Witcher 3 and MGSV. Witcher 3 would've won it easily for me but Fallout 4 is going to be incredible. Can't see how FO4 doesn't win GOTY awards.
Guaranteed to win at least one riding on the hype train alone.
That's what I'm saying, it would need to be exceptionally broken this time around for Fallout 4 not to be a massive favorite, as stable games upon release seem to have become somewhat of a rarity, sadly.
Look at Assassin creed unity they had to give their first dlc for free because they released the game to earlier, they try to release one each, year don't get wrong assassin creed games are great, but not with people flying through windows, Unity had alot of bugs that had to be fixed. I cam already see in fallout 4 people will be on priority to find glitches and stuff that gets you underneath the map. I hope GOTY goes for this game.
Yeah, that was a hot pile of broken garbage upon release, it seemed.
This year has been wondrous, with a plethora of good-to-great games like:
But as Motsie (and others have said) Fallout 4 will win by the sheer wight of public opinion, irrespective of quality or its congruence with the original ethos (though the later is definitely a minority issue).
I'm inclined to agree (and I realize that you have a proclivity for the hyperbolic), but it's not as secure as I expected.
TW3 will definitely win its share of awards, but MGS: V looks like it will be the most critically acclaimed game of the year.
Edit:
Wait, i've just noticed Ign gave goty to portal 2 and not skyrim.
It really may not be guaranteed.
I think it is too early to tell, but Fallout 4 will have to pull a golden rabbit out of the hat to match some of the MGS reviews.
Of course consensus GOTY is based on the findings of a wide range of media, so all will become clear over the winter.
For something as mainstream as Geoff Keighley's hosted VGAs, yeah, I'd say its a no brainer Fallout 4 will probably win GOTY. It's always just a popularity contest with them or whatever big company in the industry has the greater influence on the show.
However, from numerous review sites, the results can always be different. I don't doubt acclaimed games of this year like The Witcher 3 and Metal Gear Solid V (as far as we're concerned from reviews at least) will get some attention for GOTY as well.
Konami 'http://www.gamespot.com/articles/its-the-game-of-the-year-guaranteed-konami-says-ab/1100-6430162/' MGS-TPP will be GOTY....
Guarantees eh?
Those are brave words...
(maybe marketing hype, but even so...)
Yeah, that's the kind of cocky statement that bites you in the ass afterwards. Can't say I'm surprised, coming from Konami.
To be honest TW3, MGS: V and FO4 are all big enough and good enough (hypothetically) to be guaranteed at least one specious GOTY award.
Unless he means MGS: V will be the outright game of the year, that would be brave.
Sheesh, follow Kojima on twitter, the man is very in love with his supposedly "last" Metal Gear game. I swear he said that a long time ago before MGS 4 was in development when MGS 3 was finished.
HMMMMMM...
Although it is just marketing hype he's not entirely wrong, it's definitely going to be one of the big contenders but it will have some really stiff competition between FO4 and Witcher.
This whole thing has made me realize that it's been a pretty good year for video games.
It really will be the last MGS game he directs/auteurs, seeing as Konami own the IP and hate Kojima.
It's going to be an interesting year.
Winning one GOTY from someone is not that hard, Assassin's Creed Unity won one GOTY from a http://www.bndestem.nl/algemeen/multimedia/de-beste-games-van-2014-1.4684528...
But getting the consensus for the year is tough, from hundreds of sources,
particularly as Bethesda's record as consensus GOTY winner is terrific:
These things are a bit of fun, but they are also more than that as they are about pride and money.
At this stage, Fallout 4 has everything to prove
and even if it is hailed as a 'masterpiece' it is up against two other games that have been hailed by some as such a thing.
Too uncertain to judge pre-launch, though I would hope Fallout 4 is a contender.
Once we know how good the game actually is, it would still be too close to call...
Maybe if only mobile games came out this year. MGS will win the most, but for FO it depends on how their gameplay feels. And as far as Witcher goes, well I was dumbfounded with it's insane praise because the combat gameplay was just so dull and uninspired. The maiming is awesome when it happens, but strong attack, light attack, some spells, eh just bland. Anyway, it's for that reason without even playing FO, knowing it's base building and things like that, I hope it outclasses Witcher.
It all will come close when record sales go up depending on, if the game is bigger, i do believe all bethesda games have won some type of award even from people who played many of their games (but not every game has won a award, some games this year i see already winning so many awards is call of duty, but i see fallout 4 earning GOTY because if fallout 3 won GOTY, i think Fallout 4 has a big chance of winning game of the year.
GOTY is a good way to identify which version of the game you bought (original or with all DLCs). GOTY, Lengendary, ultimate - all the same to me.
I think the biggest factor will be how similar it is to Fallout 3/NV. If it's very similar I can imagine that will hurt GOTY chances, as well as review scores.