That isn't confirmed either, and just your OPINION as to what the game will be... yet you state it as a 100% confirmed fact. Just because its likely to not be a "direct sequel", does not mean it actually won't be.
Yes, it's not confirmed. But IMO, the chances of being a direct sequel to Oblivion, continuing right where Oblivion ended is close to 0%. Why? Two facts:
-TES numbered games have never been direct sequels. While anything can happen, I don't think Skyrim will be a direct sequel.
-This:
You are right. But there is one more thing, I remember Todd, I think, saying that every Elder Scrolls numbered game will not and does not require the player to play the previous game so that he can understand what's going on and what's the lore about.
Also, Infernal City as being canon is now part of the timeline and accepted as something that happened, that means it can only be a direct sequel if it continues where Infernal City ended rather than Oblivion.
Though these are all my opnions, I believe I might be right, and I would be really surprised if it isn't what I just said.