I believe Oblivion is closer to the truth regarding combat. Anyone can hit anything if he´s just close enough, he doesn´t have to be trained at all. He might do less damage and so but he still hits.
You've no experience with actual combat then? This is completely untrue and demonstratively so. You need to be trained with a weapon to be able to do anything with it other than hit a rock. Even a bow. An unskilled person at point blank range will probably not even be able to draw it. (Ever used a powerful bow?)
Honestly, boxing prizefighters at fairgrounds used to allow rubes to attempt to strike them, while they did nothing but dodge. The rubes never landed a blow.
I know some amateur fencers who would be happy to demonstrate how you CANNOT land a blow on them because of your complete lack of skill.
Please, all of you, take this thought, born of instant-gratification from console games and bin it. You might enjoy the results (and fair play if that's what you want), but it is completely unrealistic. Morrowind's lack of dodging animations produces visual oddities, but it is far more realistic than Oblivion.
Edit: One of the things I'm working on is a 'Morrowind players guide to Obivion': what to watch out for. For example, dirty mods seem far more common. Spent a while last night cleaning a mod of all the vanilla scripts. Someone had hit compile all.