What I said in an earlier thread on this topic,
When there's a need we come up with something to fill that need. In the Elder Scrolls they may refine their current technologies, but without a need they won't come up with anything new. Magic and Archery are efficient means of mid to long range attack. Guns were first invented in china as small hand held cannons. They were easy to produce, and a man didn't have to be trained for years to use it adequately like they would need for the longbow. Crossbows were harder to mass produce and were damaged easily.
Concerning technological refinement, I think I would like to see advancements toward staff production and craftsmanship. Although we our 200 years in the furture, we have been told in interviews that the tech is more primitive. It could be cultural, in that the Nords are comfortable with the traditional tools of war, or the ruined Empire has lead to a decline.
We did something similar with the end of the Roman Empire, but we tend to over-exaggerate that. Nirn of course, is NOT Earth. It's a completely different world with a very unique history. They have Gods and Magic constantly building up and tearing down the world around them. They have real, distinct races, each with their own cultural understanding and interactions with these mysterious forces. They're a people trying to find stability in chaos and hope in uncertainty. Being a game and a story, it is of course a reflection of ourselves. For us, the players, we should be able to explore and learn about this world in a way that allows us to learn something about ourselves, the world we live in, and our place in it. For me, The Elder Scrolls is about doing something a lot of Role-playing games and adventure games try to do and fail. To Create a believable world, that can be explored and experienced, with entertaining things to do and see, but with important lessons and ideas to be learned and brought to mind concerning morality, human nature, politics, and religion. Elder Scrolls, Fallout, Myst, Zork, Half-Life, Bioshock, are really the only games that have really done this for me in different, but meaningful ways.
More on topic, guns are irrelevant, providing little to game-play / role-play, and nothing to what Skyrim is trying to do. It definitely won't improve or ruin my experience, same with spears and crossbows.