I think your anology is a bit off. While you are correct that Fallout 3 will be seen as the definitive fallout by newer fans, I think that comparing it to Manhunt and Silence of the Lambs is a bit off.
A better anology would be Star Trek: The Original Series and Star Trek: The Next Generation. Unlike Manhunt, who many Silence of the Lambs fans will have never heard of (myself included), titling the game Fallout 3 and not something like "Fallout: DC" is a deliberate move toward evoking and reminding people of the original games. Part of the reason Bethesda picked up the IP and decided to continue the franchise was because of the built in fan base - the same reason paramount decided do a new Star Trek series. Longtime fans would gravitate to the new series because it has the same name as the old one; people who had never played the games but had heard of them would be drawn to the new game because they had always heard "those fallout games are really good;" and new fans would be drawn to it because of the updated visuals and it's "blockbuster game" status. Staying that Fallout 3 is the "definitive" Fallout denies the fact that the series has alot of name recognition, and the fact that many new players / people who picked it up because they had heard of the franschise but not played the original games will go out and try the originals because they played the new one first - and may even end up deciding they like the originals more. This is why the Star Trek metaphor is so apt - for example, I started watching Star Trek because of the newer series, but then got interested in the older one and went back and watched it. While I started with the newer series, the original series is the definitive one to me - it's the essence of what the series really is.
Saying that the original Fallout games were niche games or for hardcoe RPGers is a bit misleading too- while the first two games were by no means the blockbuster games of their time, they certainly weren't unknown indie games either. I remember buying both of them in electronics stores back when they game out - I didn't have to go hunt them down somewhere or buy them off the internet. Hell, I've occasionally found copies of them sitting around the cheap computer games sections of places like Best Buy or Office Depot years after the games came out. They aren't incredibly obscure games by any means. They are Top 100 lists and things like that all the time - they are considered classic RPGs by many people, and are memorable for that reason alone (just like someone who has never played the Baldur's Gate games probably recognizes the name because it won so many awards)
I do think that many people will consider the new games to be the "definitive" Fallout. But I think you overestimate how definitive that status will be - I think that because of the Fallout series' legacy, Fallout 3 is never going to be "the" Fallout for the overwhelming majority of gamers. Maybe for many, but not for most - just like there is not an overwhelming majority of fans who favor the new Star Treks over the Original series.
note: before I get labeled as some NMA fanatic I do have to say - Fallout 3 is awesome
Hey bombsonengland, I liked your post, it was probably the first to disagree with me who tried to argue any logic. I don't personally see the anology with Star Trek though. I think you are massively over estimating the popularity (in terms of numbers of fans) of the original Fallout games if you think it compares to Star Trek. Virtually every person in the Western world over the age of 10 will have heard of Mr Spock and Captain Kirk the original Star Trek series rivals Star Wars as THE most definitive space series ever. Phrases like 'Beam me up Scottie', and 'It's highly illogical Captain' have entered the English language and if you said either phrase to virtually any advlt in America or the UK they would immediately associate it with the original Star Trek.
Now if Fallout 3 had never been released and you went out on the streets and asked people what Fallout was I guarantee that 99 out of a 100 people would not have had a clue.
You say that most people have never heard of Manhunt well I can gaurantee with 100% certainty that more people will have watched the film Manhunt than will have played Fallout 1, 2 and any expansions combined. In fact more people will have watched the film Manhunt on the first weekend of its cinema release than will have ever have played Fallout 1 and 2 combined.
The pc computer industry especially 10 years ago was simply a niche market, so a game like Fallout would have been as well known to the world at large as some obscure hardcoe goth indie band who have never had a chart hit that tragic emo's are into these days.
That's why Fallout 3 IS the definitive game. It may not be anywhere near as good as the first two, but it doesn't matter. It's the only Fallout game that the public have heard of. The MTV generation, the SPIKE TV generation, all the kids with their consoles, the news media, the magazines (I'm talking general not computer mags here) They make this the definiitive game.
You seem to think it's just about gamers but its not. Something becomes definitive and enters the consciousness when even people who have never played or watched it are aware of it. There are millions of people who bought Fallout 3, probably hundreds of thousands more who downloaded it illegally also.
But they do not make up the sum total of people who know about Fallout 3. Now the world at large knows about it, it gets advertised at sports events on banners, there are posters for it on buses,it's in non gaming magazine, it's advertised on the telly, parent's teenage kids want it for Christmas or right now, it's big business, now people have heard of it, millions of people.
The original Fallout games were known to a few hundred thousand people, and were played over a decade ago, Their impact on the public at large (outside it's comparatively tiny fanbase) is virtually nil.
It's the same with the Elder Scrolls series. That series burst into life with Oblivion. Actually Morrowind made it onto the Xbox as well so was probably played by a few million people so you could argue it began there but if you went on the streets and asked people what game came before Morrowind how many do you think would be able to give you the answer? 1 out 1000?
So as I said before I completely disagree with your comparing Fallout to Star Trek it's not even a fraction of one percent as well known or as popular as Star Trek. Comparing it to Manhunt is in all honesty being slightly generous as I'm damn sure far more people (if you did a street poll) have heard of Manhunt than would have heard of the original Fallout games.
I think people on this site grossly overestimate the wide appeal of the original games, they may have been relatively popular pc games 10 years ago but the pc games market was tiny back then (in world population terms) and the hardcoe rpg market even smaller.
None of this means the Fallout games wern't great. They may be superb, the best games ever made.
But it doesn't change the fact that if you polled 1000 on the street and asked them if they had heard of Fallout of the ones who had probably 95 percent of them would be meaning Fallout 3.
It IS Fallout from hencethorth on.