Only 4? FO3 only had 5, and O:A and MZ were barely expansions. From what I heard, Dead Money is about the size of Point Lookout, no? if not, then it must be at least as big as the Pit, definitely larger.
Seeing as how O:A and MZ were really just shootout expansions without huge amounts of quest scripting, I'd say having 4 expansions from Obsidian would be better than the 5 from Bethesda.