Karma, police... Yes, I think there's a good chance of a rep or karma system. Conflicts between factions like in New Vegas is a MUST. No more being in every guild and becoming the leader.
I hope not. I hate karma systems. I'll take a reputation system, gladly, but I don't want a karma system. As to whether it will be in or not, I'm not sure.
I hope not as The Elder Scrolls is the only game series that I don't want Karma in. If they do anything I would want them to work on Fame and Infamy. Make them either more important or add effects and more benefits.
The fame and infamy works fine but for karma I'd rather have different meters like:
* Good will <---o------------> Greedy * Pacifist <--------------o-> Bloodlust
And some others. It'd keep score on how you've acted throughout quests and NPC interaction. If you took a friendly way out or just slaughtered the opposition. If you just want to help people or if you're Scrooge McDuck. It'd not be a karma system of "Oh look how good I am, I'm a saint of this world!" but rather a gray system.
But I dunno if Skyrim "needs" it really. It'd work better for Fallout.