Okay, I was successful at getting the game to launch again. I did the go into falloutnv.ini and deleted these three items. (remember you have to turn off read-only to edit the file, and save)

SMainMenuMovieIntro=
SIntroSequence=
sIntroMovie=Fallout INTRO Vsk.bik

So, it worked the first time, then it took several tries to get it to work the second time. Because every time I launched the game it kept restoring the items. So, what finally got that to stop was validate the game then go delete those items and it launched again for me.

It looks like the "crash at disclaimer" is most likely a codec thing for the intro, maybe. Even though I did delete all ffdshow, cccp, and vista codec package; it still wouldn't launch. Is there some windows codec that is breaking everything, does that make any sense?

Got a similiar problem. See http://www.gamesas.com/index.php?/topic/1133188-fallout-startup-crash/. Nobody seems to be giving any solutions though. I want my $$$ back.