Great post OP.
The dumbing down has afflicted most developers, and CDP has proven that the opposite philosophy generates MORE interest in your game.
Hopefully Todd reads this.
You know this is arguable.
IF we thinking about "dumbing down" as simplifying then Witcher 2 dumbed down many things.
The skill tree is definitely simpler, it's just about 4 different branches with no other requirements than following the path, also, no attributes.
You can also meditate anywhere, before you could only do it at campfires.
The inventory system is completely streamlined, before it was pretty unique, being able to only carry weapons on your belt or back, now it's just like Dragon Age.
The combat system, in my opinion, seems to be more simpler also. In 1 you had to time your keypresses to do combos and there were multiple fighting styles for different enemies, or more than one enemies. Now it seems to be it's mainly about spamming the left mouse button. There's probably more to it though, as this is the main problem with the game for many, figuring out how does it actually work...
If it proves anything, it's that complexity does not equals depth.