Neither preferred; but if it had to be that way... nope... still neither preferred.
However, if it could not be Fallout 1 style, how about make it Oblivion style in 3D (minus the pattern recognition); where the lock is faced at 90° and you can't see the tumblers.
(First hear me out....
)
If it were done this way, it would mean that players (or PCs; it doesn't matter), could pick the lock on a fluke chance ~if they actually picked the tumblers blind.
Character skill would come into play as you raised their lock picking abilities; implying that they better (or even fully) understand what's occurring inside the lock (mechanically).
So as the PC's lock picking skill is improved, the 3D lock interface rotates (incrementally) towards ¾ view, and slowly starts becoming transparent (as the skill increases); revealing to the player (incrementally) what is happening inside the lock. This would then reflect both the player's and the PC's equal understanding of the lock internals. This is a way of equalizing Player & PC skill at lock picking.
Example: http://i271.photobucket.com/albums/jj125/Gizmojunk/lock4.gif