And you're going to trust a crazy (if I remember right) wood elf who is rambling on about being descended from snake people and an Aedra to give you an accurate prediction of things to come? Sure the wise madman is used often in literature and games and such, but I believe this person was intended for comedic effect. Much like that Skingrad alchemist.
No, if you take the other games in context with Oblivion, then Oblivion was the deus ex machina that ended the whole "in the waning years of the third era" slew of plots, leaving a new direction of related plots to come. In other words, leaving the next developers the freedom to not have to grasp at plot threads... although there are still a few hanging around.
Leave them or make them a game, I say. I put it in the other thread in tems of gameplay, but here it is in terms of lore: In Morrowind, we had all these predictions of political and religious unrest, doppleganger sons, Tharn's posthumous effects on the Empire, etc. In Oblivion, with no explanation, all of that was gone. Yes, they were all dead, but somebody would have mentioned the problems with succession at least once in all of Cyrodiil, yes? While I'd rather we got a game with all the cool leadup we are regularly given intact, at least this time we'll have an explanation as to why the world of
Practice for Fallout: Skyrim dosen't seem to suffer from any repercussions due to the events of the last game.