1) No, human error is not eliminated by perfect aim. The error you speak of as "double human error" is how it works in real life. End dispersion is caused by the combined effects of improper aim, weapon dispersion, and dispersion caused by human error. Perfect aim doesn't help you if you don't release properly, or affect the bow in any way during the release. With regards to the tension involced, this can't be a small factor. With rifles, it is a big one. With pistols, it is MASSIVE, much more so than improper aim - which usually is pretty easy. So the suggestion does not create errors that are not already there.
I disagree, if I make a weapon point directly at a target, and have it cemented this way, so that there is no tremble or anything whatsoever, the only thing that is gonna effect the hit is the accuracy of the weapon and other none human elements. improper aim and dispersion caused by human error are the same thing, you don't have perfect aim if you don't release properly. I don't have a simulated skill in real life, I have one skill, which is my own.
2) An expert marksman is skilled at hitting targets. This does not necessarily mean he is good at predicting the movements an enemy will make to avoid being hit. Again, as it would be in real life. Even real life marksmen will miss their target if it moves at the exact same time as the marksman pulls the trigger. This factor is realistic, and needs to be included. Besides, auto-aim will only correct the movement up until the point of release, which means that any other movement AFTER release will still cause a miss. (Again, unless you want the nightmare that is automatic dynamic lead)
He isn't skilled at hitting targets, he's skilled at aiming, which has the consequence of him hitting often. Of course he can't predict the moments an enemy will make to avoid being hit, nobody can, neither will auto aim, it's impossible to know the direction of a random change of direction, before the change. Aim assist only needs to take into account movement that is constant, it's impossible to do otherwise, irregardless of skill levels. Dynamic lead would mean guiding the arrow itself (as I understand it) which defies physics.
3) First; the time between release and impact is definitely long enough to cause a miss, except at very short distances. This is true for weapons with a MUCH higher muzzle velocity than bows, it definitely affects bows. Try timing how long it takes arrows to hit targets in Oblivion, and see how much a target can move in that time. A difference of 0,5 metres is all it takes to cause a miss, and it doesn't take targets half a second to move this distance. Besides, the claim that arrows only take half a second to impact the target is clearly wrong. At range, the flight time will be much higher. Any archer-archer duel in Oblivion will prove this; if an enemy stops a movement you had pulled lead on, the arrow will miss, even if the lead estimation was correct. If he starts to strafe immideately after release, there is also a very good chance of missing, even if the reticule was dead centre upon release.
Of course they will cause a miss, the point isn't to eliminate misses, but to make sure you'll miss because your characters skill allowed it. Distance and arrow speed varies which means flight time is relative, that's why I said about half a second, not exactly have a second. I said that 90% of cases being a miss is an overstatement, not that there would be 0% misses ever.
It is quite obvious that irregular movement at medium or long ranges WILL cause misses if you calculate lead based on continuing motion. And besides, if enemy movement were to have as little impact as you claim, there wouldn't be a need for auto-aim. The changes in movement you're talking about all take place in very short time frames - shorter than a second. If those changes are enough to cause misses, the same movements will cause misses if they are performed after release, but before impact. In fact, they will probably have a greater impact than the last minute "jinxing" that seems to generate the request for auto-aim-
Of course, but I haven't said otherwise, I don't claim they will not cause misses, but they will cause less misses than manual aiming, the point is to reduce miss by the players skill, so that miss is more a consequence of character skill. It's impossible to adjust a shot when it has been shot, no one is claiming otherwise.
4) Regardless of how other games operate, Auto-aim is a babysitting feature that will eliminate the need for careful aiming. It reduces the marksman skill to a "point-and-click" feature. As mentioned above, it will completely remove the challenges we have in Oblivion (estimating range and superelevation), which would make the skill considerably less challenging and entertaining. The intent is never to completely remove the players skill from the game - that would mean that outcomes of battles would be reduced to a statistical clash between skill numbers, basically just rolling the dice. The intent is to make sure the character skill sets a realistic limit to the players skill, to make sure that the player can't use weapons above the skill level of his character, as is the case with the lockpicking skill in Oblivion.
No it doesn't, you still control when you release the arrow, who you aim after, it amplifies marksman skill by making it the defining difference between missing and hitting, it means that when your character is a master marksman, you will aim like a master marksman irregardless of player skill. Aim assist is a babysitting feature in an shooter game, where player skill is the point, TES is a roleplaying game, and the point is not to express your skills but the characters.