My friends, it's a sad fact we're all aware of that Oblivion left much to be wished for in terms of depth and sometimes even the simplest logic. Yes, Martin was the reason Kvatch was destroyed, but it wasn't Dagon's reason, nor Mankar's. It was the reasoning of a group of devs making up the most efficient way to 1) demonstrate the threat of an invasion from Oblivion, 2) demonstrate Martin's character in dramatic circumstance, and last but surely not the least, to 3) make sure the player has a bunch of endangered civilians to save by going through her first Oblivion gate. The facts we're clinging to now in search for a
lore explanation - that Kvatch had a history with Dagon, that Kvatch housed the temple of Akatosh, as well as the unfortunate piece of Martin's dialog that points to the idea he was the reason for the sacking of the city - were merely convenient afterthoughts.
What I'm saying is that at the time Oblivion was made, there were no reasons for Kvatch to be the first to fall other than plotting the story; no
internal reasons. I'm
not saying we should stop trying to make some up, though. With that in mind, I ask you to think about the following:
If Dagon had known about who and where Martin were, Martin would have been dealt with in the same manner as the other heirs. I think there are no reasons to doubt this. The argument that Dagon did know, but was bound by honor to destroy the city instead of using assassins, is flawed because he obviously used assassins on the Emperor and the three legitimate princes. The argument that it was Mancar who deployed the assassins and not Dagon working
through Mancar (in that and all other practical issues of the invasion and its preparations), is, in my opinion, entirely arbitrary. I am unaware of any hints leading to such a conclusion, so I kindly ask those who think that Mancar was independent of Dagon in any significant way to tell me what this idea is based on.
The notion that Dagon/Mancar knew the heir was in Kvatch, but didn't know who or where exactly, so they decided to level the whole city, has some merit, as well as a strong ancestry in real-life... mythology. If I had to choose among unsatisfactory explanations, I'd go for this one.
The scenario that requires the fewest assumptions and causes the fewest contradictions is indeed coincidence: if there was a specific reason Kvatch was the first to fall, this reason had nothing to do with Martin. I think that's rather boring, though.
I still refuse to believe that the reason why there were Oblivion portals everywhere along the country side and not just appearing to siege and destroy a city and then move on to the next was because until the barriers were completely gone, it was Dagon's intention to sow fear and chaos amongst Tamriel.
I kind of lost you there. So - you don't believe the random gates were there to terrorize people? What is it that you do believe?
I like to think the random gates are a symptom of the barrier falling apart: the representation of the fact that
Mundus is slowly turning into Oblivion, something indeed "random", even unintended - collateral damage.