What is happening in this country? I have an idea, and I am by no means a lore master. So please do forgive if I don't have anything straight. I just have to wonder why all of a sudden the second Red Mountain erupts that the Argonians invade. Your telling me in a matter of months they get an army formed and attack? Despite the fact that the logistics involved would be fairly intense even for an aquatic people such as themselves. That these relatively peaceful isolationists just suddenly got blood thirsty? I know they have been enslaved for thousands of years. They don't ever seem to strike me as the vengeful type. They have had so long to plan an attack and do something to the Dunmer. It could just be convenience. They were weak and they seen an opportunity.

Yet we know that in the Oblivion crisis the Hist displayed miraculous oracular visions or an excellent ability to plan ahead and learn about its surroundings. Is this Hist a single entity? Is it a colony of trees? What is it? I know there are no really good answers, just hints. Is it not possible that the Hist was behind this? Could the Hist have foreseen the explosion or had agents warn it and had the army prepared to move? Despite the fact that they were wounded the Dunmer would likely have been alive. The explosion would have been least likely to take out Morrowind's southern borders. So resistance would have been the most fierce there. Yet it is somehow swept aside? No one has any solid information on this gigantic or skilled army?

I was walking down the docks of Raven Rock and one of the first people I meet is a woman who tells me of a vicious attack. The war has been over for a very long time, and it's clear they aren't taking slaves. I didn't get the impression they were there to burn the village and take loot either. So in a vicious attack they destroy an entire village. We can presume these have been ongoing. It could just be hatred or racial motivation, but it seems so unlikely to be devoid of emotions. I get the impression they almost seem feral. Or perhaps under the influence of something.

In all of their years of history the Argonians have only ever fought twice that I know of in a large battle. The first one where they were defeated and joined the Emperor. If lore is correct they were preliterate at this stage. Then much later they join the Ebonheart pact. Despite tons of racial hatred. Could the Hist foresee the need for them to join the group for the greater good and compel them to set aside their differences? While the faction is the least stable, I am amazed it got formed at all. Some truly unusual events must have taken place between the Dunmer and Argonians. Yet it quite conveniently happened. If you look back at a lot of these events you will see they seem to always be convenient for the Argonians when they could have gone so much worse. Too convenient.

What seems more usual is that when slavery was abolished it said relations improved. We have little reason to suspect the race has a streak of vengeance. Yet when the very convenient timing appeared there they were. What I assume to be one of the largest armies they have ever mustered. Why can't they always have this army? What is preventing it from staying together? We know there are a lot of small tribal villages in the country. An upstanding army seems a little unusual. Something that is almost unnecessary given the need for survival and the natural defense of the swamp itself. Tiber Septim could only conquer its borders. What was so wise in trying to not conquer the interior? It almost implies he knows something about it that we don't.

All of this unusual behavior. It's very inconsistent in its application. I have to wonder if the Argonians learned language... or the hist who spread it to them after being conquered. Just how strong is this connection? Why is now the time for the Hist to act out in greater concentration than ever? Is anyone else worried the Hist might be getting stronger. It could have found something connected to the Infernal city or other Deadrea. Does anyone else think these odd portents make the province a likely target for the next game? Do I have any interesting musings in my post? Am I crack pot? I would like to know. I would like to know the secrets of Black Marsh. Just what is happening, because I have a bad feeling. If every single Argonian was recalled after the Oblivion crisis and we know they have some sort of connection to the trees in terms of how it defines their gender. They seem to have problems reproducing far form its borders. But if every Argonians got recalled then that is a lot of babies well hatchlings.

Even more frightening is... why would it recall Argnonians considered outsiders? We know there are two distinct casts. The ones who were born outside of the swamp are not privy to its inner secrets and treated as such. yet there they were recalled all the same. It bodes very ill if they can have the entirety of their population mobilized for war. Everything they do seems to be preparing them for some sort of goal... within a very short time span. And they are accomplishing it at alarming speeds. Something or someone is behind the scenes here. I don't need people to be aware that the entire population of the Black Marsh mobilize din an army would be a very scary thing. Even more so if they are in the thrall of the Hist. I wonder if the Hist have any sort of connection the Elder Scrolls. They knew of the crisis... if they are... then their scroll might pick up after the Dragon Elder Scroll. They are preparing for something. And I hope it isn't too late. It might not even be them planning it. If not next game, then soon. Very very soon they will unleash whatever it is they are working on.

What of the city of Infernal City. I don't have the novels. Would it have any connection to them? It seems strange he would have a city like this and not enact vengeance on the Argonians for their attack. Though I am much less clear on this. It could be unconnected or it could be very connected depending on what happened int eh books.

From what I have read The Hist essentially made the Argonians what they are,from non sentient lizards to bipedal Lizard men and women.
The Hist control the Argonians through Hist Sap.I've had a headcanon that even outsiders are fed this sap from birth by their mothers who produce it from their briasts instead of milk.
So if that is considered true then The Hist have complete control over the entire argonian population..
As for Tiber not going in,I think the Plague that wiped out the other inhabitants of Black Marsh still having a hold there might be the reason.
The Argonians don't have the numbers for World Conquest unless they align themselves with someone else..
I also think the Hist are a Hive Brain and for a tower similar to The White Gold,Snow Throat or Adamatium.

Is it... possible. That the explosion of Red Mountain damaged this "tower"? Triggering some sort of self defense mechanism? I have a feeling the plague is connected to the Hist then since without any sort of vectors a plague normally dies out. For it to survive without having any way to breed is rather unusual. Unless it can also affect animals, but if its as deadly as we are led to believe then the swamps would be wiped out. Is it possible the Hist could enhance the Argonians for combat? I mean they did somehow stop the Oblivion crisis.... that's badass. Something no one else did. All they would need to do is conquer one country to get the ball rolling. Especially in a time as... chaotic as this. It's almost the perfect time now. Convenient wouldn't you say? Who could possibly respond to them if they did? The war with the Aldmeri Dominion is going on. We know they have plans for a second one they don't intend to lose. Morrowind is gone. Skyrim is in a civil war. Now is the perfect time for them to attack. Assuming they have a goal in mind...

They could even be preparing to go to Red Mountain if they share some sort of connection to the Towers. Why is completely unknown though.

Edit
Even crazier idea. Could the Hist itself be a massive tree? Hypothetically... could this tree replicate to create more towers? Hypothetically it would need to be in those sacred locations? If so is that good for us humans... or them?

1.If they are a tower as I think they are..They are a tower from the previous Kalpa.Which makes things even more complicated.
2.The damage to the tower could the trigger for the agressive argonian behaviour as they worship the Hist.
3.As for the plague I agree,they probably wanted to remove anything outside their immediate control.
4.The Hist can enhance the Argonians that is probably what they do in every time of crysis.
5.The Redoran eventually did kick the Argonians out of Morrowind..SO I still don't think they have the capacity to conqure and hold an entire country.

Now... what if something were to happen to corrupt the Hist and allow these Argonians to be in super man mode all the time? Would it be a danger then? I get the distinct feeling there might be a group of Argonians not affected by the Hist... trying to abuse its power over the others. Hell it might not even be them, who knows. Just that if something were to go wrong... bad stuff could happen.

What are the odds of us going to Blackmarsh in the next game or two?

What would corrupt the Hist? is probably the question..They have been around since before the Altmer were atlmer and were still et'ada/Elonefey.
Without the hist I don't think argonians can do much.the Super Man mode probably depends on the sap the Argonians drink..So an Argonian seperated from it might not have the same prowess as one who is taking it regularly.
If somehow the Hist control is shaken by an argonian group and they still manage to maintain their strength levels..It could be a danger then,But they would be cut of from the genius of the Hist.
Black Marsh in a game seems unlikely by the direction the games are going it's either going to be Hammerfell or Valenwood.

What makes you say Hammerfell or Valenwood? Do you think we will ever see the Black Marsh or is it too weird for them these days?

I assume the Thalmor are going to have some prescence in the next game unless they do a Skyrim and jump 200 years..But I doubt they would do this.
So either fighting the Thalmor from Hammerfell or undermining the government or joining the Thalmor in Valenwood seems the mostlikely solution and that leads to the Second great War between the 6th and 7th games or even in the 7th game.
As for Black Marsh we have no mythic significance to go there,Unless my headcanon of The Hist tower is true.High Rock and the defense of the Adamantium might also be on the cards.

I can just see it now. An Elder Scrolls calling to go the center of Black Marsh to defend one of the mighty towers. Que every in universe lore master going wtf? I actually concur with you. I don' think the Black Marsh is the next installment. Events don't seem to be lining up. But if we get the same rush of information on Black Marsh as we did in Skyrim things could be heading that way.

From a design stand point... they will want to do something fresh... and new. We have had two games of humans. Yet it needs to have a significant lore basis. Valenwood does fit the criteria... but I find its lore purpose to be a little iffy. It's just not a particularly strong connection. Hammerfell and High Rock on the other hand... seem high up there, but may be too familiar after two games with humans. Particularly High Rock. Your guesses do seem likely from a design stand point. From a lore point it seems Hammerfell is a stronger case.