What if

What does this have with Fallout 4 and the Commonwealth.

Legate Lanius and his troopers meet General Oliver and kill him, the NCR offensive collapses, and the Legion wins.

The problem with the situation is General Oliver has allowed the Legion to have absolutely no problem widdling down their numbers in his goal to upstage Chief Hanlon. While the Fiends won't be distracting NCR, there will be the following distractions:

* Poison Gas will kill all the NCR troopers at the Strip.

* The troops at Camp Golf will be dangerously undertrained.

* Hanlon will be dramatically lowering morale with stories of the Legion's invincibility.

* The Great Khans will be throwing their hat in with the Legion.

* The White Glove Society will be serving as Caesar's Legion's new patrician class.

* Mister House won't be able to use his securitrons to beat the Legion.
* The massive casualties at Camp Searchlight.

* The spy at the airport would report all movements to the Legion.

In short, a complete disaster for NCR.

Helios and the BOS didn't really do all that much and while casualties were heavy, the forces at the Airport weren't engaging the Legion anyway. NCR would have less casualties but they're still likely to simply withdraw.

yep, also:

- Kimball will be murdered

- Camp Forlorn Hope falls

- The monorail will be bombed

Without the courier, only one guy can stop Legion. Benny.

While not having to go to Fort hastily running from the courier, He would have more time to plan and sneak in to the weather station and activate the securitrons.

Still, there's the question of how to enter the Lucky 38........maybe Yes Man can hack one of the Securitrons?

To be fair, Benny's plan almost worked. The problem is that it failed because of something stupid he overlooked but would have had time to check.

Specifically, that he didn't change his haircut.

It's a question of whether his vanity would permit him to change it or whether he never would have thought of it period.

Of course, there's another irony that Caesar is dying anyway and the Legion won't survive his death so all of Caesar's victories will be for nothing in the end.

Doubly so as House predicts killing Kimball is actually a really stupid idea since it will mean the NCR will invade in revenge.

By that time, they'll roll over everything.

You guys covered it pretty well.

IMO the most important point is that if the Courier never left Goodsprings, the Legion is very likely to win the second battle at Hoover Dam.

Supposing that, what would happen when the Legion arrives in the city? My guess is that House loses, and the Legion overruns the Mojave.

Now when they move on into California, that's another matter entirely.

The Legion is doomed.

They'll win the Battle but Lose the War.

As House says, killing Kimball will inflame NCR.

And Caesar is dying.

That point with Caesar dying is probably the most important one (NB: I've never done a Legion playthrough, so I don't know if it train of thoughts is covered in-game perhaps...)

The Legion seems to me entirely centered around that one leader figure, Caesar. All strings attached to him, he keeps that whole bunch of tribes together.

Once he's gone the Legion will eventually break apart. Might take a couple of years, and maybe some sort of core will remain, but it'll break apart. Especially so if they take losses during the war and are weakened militarily.