The thing to keep in mind is that the file format that Morrowind and Oblivion used are not property of Bethesda and are licensed. I find it really strange that Emergent (at the time called Net Immerse) did not make an issue of the modding community hacking the format. The format specs were never released by Emergent and were only available with a GameBryo license, so the mere fact that NIFScope even exists is a miracle. Companies tend to treat their file formats are intellectual property long after they have lost their usefulness.
Bethesda has been extremely generous to the modding community in past games and has provided a better tool than offered with any other game from any other company. However, this is not a developer decision. This is a management decision. Management wisely saw the modding community as a way to increase and maintain revenue long after the game was released. There have been a lot of changes at Bethesda since the release of Oblivion, so it is not too far fetched to consider the possibility that current management (assuming there was a change) will view modding as a violation of intellectual property rights and ban it.
So far Bethesda used 3ds Max for their models, not Maya. But Max is just as expensive as Maya, so I guess it doesn't matter. Morrowind only had a 3ds max exporter and it didn't kill the community. Neither will it kill the Skyrim community. There are lots of people who use 3ds Max for modding, I would estimate that at least 20% of the modellers in the Oblivion community use it instead of Blender. And I'm sure eventually there would be a Blender plugin as well. No idea whether Morrowind has one.
I got the modelers mixed up. Yes, there is a Blender plug in for Morrowind, made by the same people that make the Blender plug in for Oblivion. My point was that these plug ins were not made with the permission of either Emergent or Bethesda and the format had to be hacked to get the plug ins working. This is my concern, as I have already posted. If Bethesda refuses to release the format OR a Blender plug in (either would work), then the modding community will be comprised of those that have access to Max. Also, since Bethesda now owns the rights to the format, hacking the format without Bethesda's express permission can and probably would be seen as a violation of their intellectual property rights. Again, this would mean an underground modding community and no support on these forums for mods made with such tools.
Of course, there are other options like Bethesda not releasing the format, but giving permission to hack it (kind of strange and counterproductive).
A year will pass quickly and we can expect a slow trickle of news from official outlets over the next few months. However, it would be nice to hear about this particular topic soon.