Oblivion was a step in the right direction with the tumblers, however the fact that the game was paused during this made it ridiculously easy. Fallout had a good system as well, foregoing tumbler knocking by focusing on using a screwdriver as a tension wrench, however it was also not in real-time.
My hopes for Skyrim, whatever system they implement, are held high for a real-time lockpicking method. Morrowind had real-time picking, but it was completely unrealistic jabbing at a chest with a pick (to be fair, though, Emil wasn't on the team yet). What are some of your guys' opinions? I think if they could implement a fun mini-game that is challenging and in real-time, but that also included an "auto-try" option, they'd make a lot of the hardcoe rogue players and not so hardcoe rogue players very happy.