I think New Vegas, Dragon Age 2, or Fable will win.
I didn't give it Ultimate Game of the year though. I was looking for red dead redemption, couldn't find it, so I gave it to Halo reach.
DA2 is not very good at all and Fable 3 is a steaming pile of [expletive deleted]. Seriously, Fable 3 doesn't deserve to win any awards except "best $50 paperweight".
I voted for it for both, even with the bugs NV is still far better than Call of Bland: Modern FPS 673.
That said, if anything deserves to win Ultimate GOTY it's Starcraft II; far better than any other game in there except New Vegas.