First off, and I need to re-read all your stuff, cuz I have been busy.

But 1st: it isn't 30 years for population double. In fine conditions, the number is 37 or 39. Almost 40.

I made it 50 years for arguement sake because from 2077-FO3, it is 200 years, so that gives a nice even number of 4 doublings.

Now, because of the devastation from nuclear war, water shortage, food shortage,disease, the initial first doubling could take longer, but after things got back to normal. As Savage basically said.

Some peopme have huge advantage as far as population growth, due to tech: Vault people, BoS, Enclave, other military groups who had access to a bunker/vault.

Vaults with the more extreme experiments are exception, and basically useless.

2nd after my last post I was thinking about what the casualties from Great War had to be, and it probably had to be at least 95%, maybe 99%.

Why? Because if 10% of the population survived, by FO3, and doubling every 50 years, the population would be back to what it was in 2077, well, actually it would be 160%... and we know there is not that many people.

If 1% of the pop survived, by FO3 the pop would be back to 16% of what it was. Now, that number can be high, because it may have taken awhile before population could actually start doubling, due to water shortage and disease. Basically, by FO3 it could be anywhere from 5-16%

Edit: Actually, anywhere from .1%-1% could have survived the war, meaning that by FO3, the population of the USA could range anywhere from say .2%(low number depends on when the first doubling began)-16%.

If the doubling began from 2077 the low end population would be 1.6%.

Now it depends on how many survived. Note, if too many people survived, then the game is gonna become.. not very Fallout like.

You guys seriously DOING MATH on the fallout [censored] forums? Got something else to do? didnt think so. the number is about 1 million i am guessing, thats all i can say i aint gonna do any complicated math. Population doesnt necceserally double in 30 years, so i aint gonna start doing math about something i dont know [censored] about, but guessing from all the NCR i have killed, im saying one million

evilbastrd, you yourself in other debates have used 30 years as the mark in which a population doubles. Now that people have done the math using the year you so often used and proven that 700,000 is a realistic number, you suddenly go "oh wait I said 50 years not 30." This only proves my early remarks about you. You face a fact you don't like, you make things up.

The population of 700,000 at 2161 means that the total number of survivers of the Great War in Southern California would have been around 15,750. That is a realistic number given that the population of Southern California at the time of the Great War would have been close to 30+ million people. 15,750 survivors out of 30+ million people is realistic.

Using your number of 60,000 people as of 2161 would have been only 281 people. 281 people out of 30+ million people in all of Southern California.

The math doesn't lie, 15,750 people is totally realistic for the number of survivors. 700,000 being the population of Southern California as of 2161 is realistic.

Also the Game itself confirms this. You are using the none canon Fallout Bible to say that NCR fudged the numbers by over 640,000 people. The Fallout Bible doesn't even say that is the case. It all comes down to what you see as an exaggeration.

I have always said 50 years. Always.

Also I did not say the population of all of Southern California was 50-60K.

I said the population of the NCR in FO2 was more realistically 50-60K.

The NCR in FO2 is 5 states. That doesn't mean they hold control over all of southern cali, they are in the process of growing, and continue to absorb what towns they can.

IF there was 700,000 NCR, in FO1 that would have put about 300,000 people in FO1, in the villages and so forth who create the NCR. Shady, junktown, hub, la, etc.

IF everything doubled every 50 years, and like Savage said, for the first 50 years there probably was not a doubling, but if it did, there is about 150 years between 2077 and FO2. So it would have doubled 3 times.

Meaning in 2077 in the areas to become NCR, there would have been 87,500. That is just the "people who become NCR" and not all survivors.

That would be. 2% of the entire state of California. My point is, there are obviously other survivors in Cali, and southern cali, who survived, but if it was JUST NCR to be people who lived, you are already at a .2% survival rate.

So, if say the NCR in FO2, made up 1/5th of the total survivors in Cali, you have a 1% survival rate.

Which means, by FO3, there would be 64 million people in the USA, because 4 million would have survived the war.

Note, IF for the first 50 years there was no doubling, this would mean the survival rate was higher.

Does it feel like there are that many people in the world? Those numbers would also mean there are 6.4 million people in Cali by FO3.

Seems high to me.

Look it is every simple. The game says 700,000. There is no way around that. It makes sense to have 700,000 in all of Southern California in 2241.

Southern California is a huge area. 700,000 people is a small city. 350,000 people at the time of Fallout 2161 are spread out over a huge area of land. It is 100% realistic to believe that the population of NCR in 2241 was 700,000 people given that 164 years before that it was around 30+ million people.

You are saying we shouldn't use 700,000 people based only on your opinion of what "exaggerated" means and you only got that from the Fallout Bible which isn't even canon. 640,000 people isn't simply an exaggeration. NCR couldn't get away with that big of a number fudge up.

The population of California at the time of the Great War would have been close to 50 million people. Southern California would have been like 30 million people. For roughly 15,500 thousand people to survive out of that is realistic. 15,500 out of 30 million people. That is a fraction of a fraction of a fraction of 1% of the population!

700,000 people is the population of Southern California at that time like it or not. By saying we shouldn't use it based on your own opinion and interpretation to me is incredibly arrogant. You are saying "the game is wrong, you're all wrong I am right."

Given the information we can safely say the population of the NCR as of 2281 is 2.8 million people. You are freaking out over that number. News flash for you that is a drop in the bucket. 2.8 million people in the area the size of the NCR which is most of the West Coast of the United States is NOTHING! Well over 163,696 sq miles and only 2.8 million people, again that is nothing to freak out about. "Fallout would be ruined with a couple million people living in North America" It's nothing. The population of LA and the area around it is 12.9 million people alone and you are freaking out over 2.8 million in all of the Westen United States? I am repeating myself here because it is unbelievable to me that you think that [censored]s things up for the Fallout Universe.

Do you have any idea how big the United States is? It's 3,794,100 sq miles and a couple million to ten million people in that amount of land is a nothing at all, nothing. It wouldn't ruin Fallout at all.


700,000 people as of 2241. Double the size of NCR, double the population, so 700,000 people. So 140,000 people. Add another 40 years so that means double the population again, so that makes it 2.8 million people. Not 6.4 million people.

Even if it was 6.4 million people so damn what? That many people in the Western United States is nothing. 6.4 million people is just about half the size of the population of LA today.

Edit: I also want to point out that your figure of 3000 people for the population of Shady Sands is from the Fallout Bible and not canon. The 103 people of Vault City believe NCR (Shady Sands) to be many tens of thousands. They admit they haven't got access to the NCR census that was taken and they only can guess what is south of Shady Sands. So they go by what they see and they see Shady Sands (NCR) and they see tens of thousands.

Even if that is just a guess at the population of all of NCR's territory given the size of that once city that they can see, it would still have to be alot more than just 3000 people for them to think it could be "many tens of thousands."

I am not saying they are right that the population of all of NCR is only "many tens of thousands" I am just saying it supports the idea that the population of Shady Sands is alot greater than just 3000 people. A number that isn't even canon.

gotta agree with styles on this one, it says 700000 and no one can change that. but its seriously hard to just do the math and find out how many they have right now (year 2281) cause people die too. Its not a life rule that a population doubles every 30 years.

Your missing the point, people dont want the NCR around, but NCR forces them. They do some good, but its not worth they price of freedom. And he said it was better to have NCR then nothing, NCR aint the best choice for Primm, unless you are doing a die hard NCR playthrough.

The point is you said people within the NCR are fleeing it. No one in New Vegas that is from the NCR that isn't Enclave, Khan or Powder Ganger left the NCR because of it's rules and taxes. The people that are talking [censored] about NCR are those about to become part NCR against their will. But if you ask them who would you want to join, NCR or the Legion and you can be damn sure they would say NCR all the way.

But I will give you the three days you asked for lol. The only people that might fit what you said are the Followers, but they only left to help other people. There is super mutants but I don't count them as people (don't hate me people).

RACIST LOL anyways ok i will admit i was wrong in some ways if i wont find someone, but dont expect result early im currently playing alot of fallout 3. Ill look into it ASAP.

But fact is the people as u said would rather join NCR then Legion, well they would rather make Vegas Independent then NCR, so Indy wins freedom style.

You are still missing the point.

The 700,000 number, which a GAME DESIGNER of FO2 said was Exaggeration, who is same person who worked on FONV, is the population of NCR.

I DID NOT SAY: 700,000 is the pop of ALL of southern cali OR Cali.

Does the NCR encompass all of southern cali in FO2?

Or is it still adding at this time?

What I am saying is that number, depending on if it is all Southern California or not, depending on when the population started to double, because of famine, disease, will determine the survival % from the Great War.

IF the survival % is 1%, and there were 40 mill in Cali, then 400,000 people survived. IF that is the case, then there is 3.2 million in Cali, IF doubling started 100 years after, because of Famine, OR 6.4 million, if doubling began 50 years.

This also can greatly impact the population of the entire USA. If Survival was 1% in Cali, which was fairly heavily bombed, the survival % in midwest and more rural areas, would be even higher. This is important because it shapes the entire USA.

If the avg survival % is just 1%, and pop doubling occured every 50 years, the pop is 64 million people. If that is the case, the world is starting to look a lot less like Fallout.

You are trying to tell me that 30 of the 40 million people live in southern Cali, and all those people who survived, and multiplied, formed NCR and by FO2, was 700,000.

In irder to figure out survival rate, need key info:

First: is NCR ALL of southern Cali in FO2? Did 30 mill live in Southern Cali? When did population doubling begin?

Without that info, can't get accurate guess, which is what it is.

Now, if NCR is like you say, and ALL southern California, and in 2077 it was 30 mill, and pop doubling started from the get go and took place every 50 years, the survival rate is .3%.

.003(.0029 to be exact) X 30 million = 90,000.

Double that 3 times for the 150 years to FO2 and you get 720,000. Or 696,000 if you use the more accurate .0029.

My problem is I did not think NCR was all of southern cali in FO2. That is the KEY to my beef.

With a survival % you can thus figure out the rough estimates of not only a state, but the entire USA.

To get Cali. .0029 x 40 mill.

For USA .0029 x 400 mill.

There is room for error, when you take into account Vaults, but fairly accurate.

Fyi, this would mean entire pop of Cali in FO2 is 928,000 and by NV time 1.856 million.

Therefore, if you want to say the 700,000 number is accurate, and it includes ALL of Southern Cali, and pre-war that was 30 million, then it was .29% survival, and pop Cali/NCR is 1.856 million.

The pop USA would be 18.56 million.

Phone svcks. Problem I have is by FO2, it does not say all of southern cali is NCR. Just says it made up of 5 states.

And if it is NOT all of southern cali, it is going to alter the Survival %. IF you alter the survival %, you make drastic changes to population.

To get to 1% survival, you will be multiplying these numbers by almost 4.

And that is huge, as you go from 1.8 mill to 5-6.4 million.

Fallout Bible isn't canon. Yes he said the number is exaggerated but he didn't say by how much. It could be exaggerated by a couple thousand for all we know. Still the bible isn't canon so it doesn't even count.

By the time of Fallout 2 the NCR is all of Southern California. 700,000 is the population of all of NCR territory at the time of Fallout 2. It is the census that Vault City talks about.

Myself and others are using 700,000 to get a number which is around 2.8 million people. You are saying it isn't even close to that. So in away you are saying that 700,000 shouldn't be used. In fact you are trying to descredit it by saying "well its only an exaggeration used as propaganda"

So can you see why I think you are telling us not to use that number?

We are using different math. You say the population doubles every 50 years, I am saying it doubles every 30 years. Things improved greatly in the west over time and this is going to sound bad but poor people tent to have alot of kids. No real birth control around, people need kids to help feed the family, take care of them when sick or old and for protection. So they have alot of kids.

A great game example of this is the Wright Family in Fallout 2's New Reno. The guy has dozens of kids running around.

I am also saying far less then 1% survived the Great War. This would explain the 700,000 given for 2241.


Even if it was using your math, I say so what? America is huge and empty 18.56 million people is nothing at all.

I get your point that you don't want the population to end up getting really high but that only becomes a serious problem if the games keep jumping ahead by several decades at a time. If they keep going at a few years at a time then there would be no real problem.

What Bethesda can do to keep the population from becoming far to high (tens of millions+) is they can say that there was an outbreak of small pox or some flu that wiped out entire settlements thoughout the known wasteland spread by caravaners.

Like how the Spanish Flu made the Great War (WW1) look like a minor battle compared to how many people it killed.

LA is about as south as it gets, with only San Diego being more south, and in Fallout two they are about up to San Fran, that is more than half the state. http://www.destination360.com/maps/california-map.gif

I understand what you are saying. But the 30 year doubling is not right. That is faster than it is now by almost a decade.

Wright can afford to have all those kids, but for the average wastelander, who can probably barely keep himself in proper nutrition, those extra kids would have high mortality rate without proper nutrition.

Even in FO2, FO3 and NV there are still water and food problems. The chosen one has to get a GECK, remember?

Which is why I went with 50 years, instead of the 37-39 that it is today, to represent the difficulty of the FO world.

Some have advantages with this like I said before, BoS, Enclave, Vaults, other people who have technological advantages.

Technically, the doubling could be greater, like every 60-75 years, which could work out by just altering the Survival Percentage.

I don't have a problem with 18 mill in the USA. I have a problem with 64 million, or 100 million. I never liked the huge time jumps, because I saw this problem coming. They need to slow down or the game is no longer Fallout.

But, the math is solid for 50 years. I would argue that 30 years is way too fast, based upon the problems in the FO world and the potentially high mortality rate.

Well I feel the math is sold on every 30 years. So I guess we have to agree to disagree on that one.

The debate isn't the population of America btw (Or is it? lol) it is the population of NCR and Legion area. I might have been the one that started down the road of all of America, if I did sorry. As we both know it seems to be clear that different sections of North America are developing at a different rate. Look at DC and the area around it. Zero porgress beyond building small towns in 200 years. The West in just 84 years had a working economy, farming and city states. Given another 80 years it had nations with armies and massive farming programs.

I don't know much about the Midwestern United States but I have a feeling they are called "Fly Over States" for good reason. Most of the population of America is on the East and West Coast and Texas.

After the Great War most of the midwest would be dust bowl. So it is safe to say the Great Plains region of the United States "Middle America" would have very low population with very little progress.

So the idea that I can use my 30 years and you with your 50 years and apply that to all of America isn't feasible. There are just to many factors to account for, so just because the West is growing and doubling it's population every 30 or in your case 50 years doesn't mean all of America is as well. Cleary it isn't.

How can you come up with a number that is better than today?

That doesn't make any sense.

The infant mortality rate is less than 1%. In some places in Africa, it is 10%.

Is Africa coping with radiation and nuclear fallout?

No, and a nuclear survivor world is gonna be worse. Food, water, disease, limited doctors, if any, and magically you have this post FO world multiplying faster than today because they have farms? For all you know thesr farms are barely keeping them alive.

Go 10 days without water, and you are dead. Go 2 days without water in 120 degree temp, and you are dead.

And hmm, it is a desert in cali and Nevada.

You really need to rethink this 30 year thing. Btw are you thus also saying the population has doubled 5 times up to FO2?? Cuz that would put the survival % at 0.07... which would mean 99.93% of people died... ???? It be a dang miracle to even find a female!

I gave ya 700,000 people in NCR, cuz I figured that fair if it is going to be a representation of 30 million pre war people.

But if 50 is wrong..you are going the wrong way.

Btw, lots of farming Midwest. Also two of the largest cities in the entire USA are in the midwest. Chicago, #3 and I believe Houston #4. The Great Lakes is a huge water source that can give people around it a great survival advantage.

I just don't see how you can come up with a number better than real world, because of what? Farming?

America isn't developing the same rate. The West NCR is a developing nation well on it's way to being a first world nation. DC and I assume much of the East Coast is still in the stone age living in radioactive crap holes.

The Great Plains of the United States "Middle America" has the lowest population density of all of America.

Again America isn't developing at the same rate. You are acting a if it is, but it isn't and it is made clear. Just look at Fallout 3 DC to Pittsburgh and the area around them = Total [censored] Hole and it's been a total [censored] hole for 200 years.

The West is improving greatly every time we see it.

We have to agree to disagree on the 30 or 50 years or what you think the birth rate is in the game or in real life. You have your math, I have mine. We aren't going to change one anothers minds on this issue. So why don't we just take a break from this and let others decide for themselves.

Ya and developing to the point that they reproduce faster than modern world is illogical and almost ridiculous.

Water is a key to human life. Population density doesn't change the fact that Chicago, Detroit, Columbus, Indianapolis, Milwaukee, even Nashville, are all in the top 50, maybe 25, in largest cities and all in striking range of the great lakes, thus water and life.

Add Oklahoma City, Denver, Houston, and a vast amount of other midwestern-ish cities that are also in the top 50.

The density, rural living, is something that increases survival %. DC is a poor comparison, as it was the capital, and heavily bombed. Can't use that to compare what the midwest would be like.

The Chosen Ones tribe is dying...there is a vast desert. People need water.

You have made no rational explanation how they can grow so fast, especially when food is still a theme in the west. The sharecroppers are having a hard time growing food.

Plants need water to grow. Humans need water and food to survive. It is a desert, with I'm sure means in summer months the temperature will reach the 100s...which means both humans, and their crops need more and more water.

You also didn't answer if you thus believe the pop doubled 5 times. We can agree to disagree, but you have delivered zero evidence to suport this super population expansion, that is faster than a world which is not devastated by nuclear war.

So fine.

People need water, but much water is not radioactive, as lake mead and few other sources. New Vegas is probably the most valuable area around, thanx to many intact buildings and purified water, so NCR wants it. I do think so that there is more purified water in NCR territory, since more then a million of them are alive, but i doubt as some of you are saying, that there are 2-5 million of them. 1 million, maybe little more, 1,5 million sounds fair. Lets not forget there are actually some revolutioneries that hate NCR (dont ask just play fallout and you will see) and they would lose alot of men in their war against BoS and Legion, plus all the raiders and tribals around and more. Hell the Enclave should have dealt some damage to them. Its not like you can just double the population over 30 years and say, yeah thats how it is. Its a little more complicated.

I believe the population doubled 5 times in the Wests (NCR) but no where else in America that we have seen. Also news flash for you guys. The west (NCR) has clean water. They didn't have an water issues in the West up until 2281. Their population got bigger, by my estimate of 2.8 million people.

I don't give a flying crap what you think the birth/death rate is in Fallout or in the real world. You seem to think that DC is advancing at the same rate as NCR so that right there shows how flawed your idea is.

NCR's population doubled easily 5 times in the last 200+ years. 2.8 million people in an area the size of the NCR isn't alot of people. Remember LA right now is 12.9 million people. That is one city, I am saying an area the size greater than the State of California can have 2.8 million people.

Agree to disagree evilbastrd. What I am saying makes sense, sorry you can't see that.

700000-2800000 people in 30 years. I find it pretty funny, but lets go with your numbers, cause they are not that unrealistic. I still think only 1-1,5 million people survive in the NCR, but thats just a wild guess, California has been a succes for big factions in Fallout. But NCR would surely have lost many in all the wars that they have fought, and are still fighting, so 2,8 mil aint what i think.

Lmao. No water problems in FO? Lmao. FASTER population increases than our world??? Makes no sense, I guess nuclear war had no impact what so ever! The west coast just immune to the lasting effects of nucleae fallout!!

I also never said DC progressed like the west. Please post my quote where I say DC progressed awesome. I simply said you could not compare DC to the midwest, because DC was heavily nuked. Heavily nuked means HARDER to survive. The survival chances in the midwest would be greater, because one would assume that area would be hit by less nukes.

You are the one making things up. Acting like the West Coast magically suffered no ill effects. Food, water, readily available! Every woman cranking out 10 babies, everyone properly hydrated and nourished. The miracle! Why it is like the war never happened!!

I don't care if Los Angeles has 100 million people in it. That is irrelevant, because there was a NUCLEAR WAR. Those people are dead.

The game is called FALLOUT not SIM CITY: California.

They should change the intro to the Fallout Games. Instead of mankind almost being wiped out, the earth turned into a cinder, Perlman should say: War, war never changes. The earth was nearly wiped clean of life, spears of nuclear fire rained from the sky, continents swallowed in flames, humanity was almost extinguished. Few survived the devestation, unless you lived in California, which was somehow immune to radiation and the effects of nuclear war. So you drank from your plentiful supply of clean water, and ate a snack.

I think Styles just likes to argue. I came up with a estimate, and that is all this stuff is, an estimate, of 1.8 million, and well... lol.

But, it makes no sense that they grew 4X in size in 30 years.

Of course, it Cali though, and thus were protected by nuclear war. And the Great Merchants War over water never happened, and there was no Water Merchants, cuz clean water flowed in abundance for all. In fact, FO1 was patched. Instead of going to get a water chip, you are given a bucket, to go scoop water out of the near by pond. 4000 exp.

Another pandemic of the http://fallout.wikia.com/wiki/New_plague?