Current Situation
The Oblivion Crisis brought with it the end of the Third Empire. Its successor - the First Republic of Man - did not hold out for long, and Tamriel was divided once more. However, independence did not bring peace to the land of the Nords, for their hearts always long for war; alliances were made and war came to their land again. After the War of Undoing, Skyrim's political landscape changed greatly. The many city-states have been replaced with only two main powers - Windhelm and Whiterun, both of whom consider themselves successors to the First Empire of Man. Though the two kingdoms attained their power together, they have distanced themselves from each other to say the least, and war looms in the horizon once more, ill tidings for the Nords if they are ever to reforge their empire.
However, the conflict between the two is not the only problem of Skyrim, even if it is perhaps the greatest. Up north, the Confederacy of the North Coast is crumbling; the proud people of Winter Hold still remember their long rivalry with Solitude and do not relish being forced to stay in an alliance with them. Having lasted only ten years, the danger of the Dawnstar Union of 4E 31 being broken and war breaking out in the north is imminent, especially with the guarantees of noninterferance given to Winter Hold by the two great powers of Skyrim. In Dawnstar, the once-powerful kingdom and now a mere vassal of Solitude, the kings of both lands meet in a great council that will seal the fate of the northern coast.
North of Hrothgar, south of Atmora, the world is about to burn.
4E 1- Martin Septim ends the Oblivion Crisis and seals the Gates at the cost of his own life. The Empire appears safe, but many realize that this is not to last.
4E 2- The Great Council of the White Gold Tower. The Elder Council attempts to counter the approaching crisis by extensive administrative reforms. Province borders are redrawn and new administrators are appointed. A part of the Elder Council begins pushing for a pro-Cyrodiilic flavour for the new administration, limiting the number of locals in influential positions.
4E 3- The Third Empire is renamed into the First Republic and the Elder Council assumes full control of Tamriel. Meanwhile, discontent grows in the newly-redrawn provinces, as their borders were drawn according to geography, paying little to no heed to the locals. The Ashlanders of Morrowind, nomads of Hammerfell and the Argonian tribes in the Republic's sphere of influence are particularly affected by this, as they are forced into the frames of the Republic, trampling their traditions and dividing their ancient lands wrongly.
4E 4- The 'centralisation reform' begins. Nibenese officials are gradually introduced in Skyrim, replacing local chieftains and kings one by one. The Elder Council doesn't seem to realize, however, that this effort of theirs is akin to a naked flame in a dry forest ? one spark and it will all go up in flames.
4E 6- The Republic's efforts reach the city of Windhelm, the ancient capital of the First Empire and the kingdom of Ysgramor's heirs. There they request that the king steps down, however they are met with open hostility ? the appointed officials are chased out of the ancient city. The Elder Council begins to realize what their efforts have caused, however it is too late ? the kingdom of Windhelm secedes from the Republic, declaring war.
The Elder Council's hopes that the rebellion will not spread are put to a swift end when the city-kingdoms of Solitude and Winter Hold declare independence as well, followed by rebellions against the new order in Markarth Side, Whiterun and Riften; the Nordic War begins. By the end of the year, the Legions are drawn from all over Cyrodiil to the border with Skyrim.
4E 7- Before the Republic can march its armies into Skyrim, disaster strikes in the form of the Colovian Rebellion of Varus Alduro. Faced with decreasing representation in the Elder Council after the fall of the Empire, the Colovians grow more discontent by the day. When Nibenese officials begin to replace Colovians, the discontent reaches its climix; the only thing that it takes for Colovia to secede from Nibennium is a conflict between Varus Alduro, a Colovian noble, and his Nibenese neighbour, ending with Varus marching into the neighbour's estate with his servants, killing the 'foreign' noble and burning down his estate. The anti-Nibenese rebellion, beginning in the area around Varus' estate, quickly spreads to encompass the whole of Colovia. Varus Alduro is declared the king of Colovia.
But the loss of Colovia itself is not the greatest blow to the Republic; only after the Colovian parts of the Imperial Legion begin to mutiny all over Tamriel does it occur to the Elder Council what kind of a catastrophe is at hand. The fact that Colovians form the majority of the Legion spells doom for the Republic and its hold on territories outside the Nibennium.
4E 8-10- The Varus Alduro rebellion grows into the Colovian-Nibenese war, known as the Unshackling War outside of Cyrodiil. The majority of the Legion, being spread over the whole of Tamriel, disbands; the Nibenese units in Cyrodiil remain loyal to Nibennium, however many of their kin in distant lands choose to become bandits or even worse ? petty rulers, the Legion Commanders styling themselves counts and even kings of miniature realms based around Imperial forts. Some Colovians go down the same path, however quite a large number of them choose to return home to Colovia, providing the newly-formed kingdom with a steady supply of veteran soldiers.
The powers of the two forces quickly even out, and Colovia even begins to seize the initiative before being forced to stop and reorganize the new realm. The Treaty of Weye is signed according to which Colovia is established as a sovereign kingdom (with a border running from the outskirts of Bruma up north and encompassing Aleswell, brushing against Lake Rumare, going east to the Niben Bay and stopping in the south at Larsus River, on the very outskirts of Bravil) completely independent from Nibennium; another very important term, requested by both Nibenese and Colovians alike, is that the Elder Council relinquishes their power, replacing the First Republic with the kingdom of Nibennium. The treaty also serves as the official acknowledgment of the collapse of the Republic of Tamriel as the Third Empire's heir.
Outside of Cyrodiil, the war completely breaks the power of the Empire's successor. Local rulers again seize power over their lands, returning Tamriel to the state of turmoil it was in before the coming of Tiber Septim. Though called the 'Unshackling War', this Tamriel-wide rebellion and breaking of the Republic's power in fact leaves the various people of Tamriel divided and weak.
Black Marsh reverts back to its ancient ways completely, Imperial colonists being driven out by the native tribes. Morrowind, where the balance has been ruined with several Houses crumbling and others attaining greater power, is faced with a crisis of its own. Valenwood and Elsweyr go back to their endless warring, while the Bosmeri also have to deal with expansionist ambitions beginning to form in the Summerset Isles. The Crowns and Forebears go back to their age-old conflict in Hammerfell, with the King of Sentinel also tampering with the affairs of the Bretons up north, who have gone back to age of rivalries between petty realms, Elysana's ambition of an united High Rock under Wayrest thwarted by a confederacy of Bretic realms of western High Rock, lead by Daggerfall and strengthened by ex-Legionnaire mercenaries. In Skyrim, an uneasy peace forms, but tensions run high amongst the city-states of the North.
4E 14- After independence was won in the Nordic War and made official in the treaty of Weye, peace held for a mere four years before the fiery spirits of the Nords again sought war. The war began after the tripartite pact of Dunstad, where the rulers of Solitude, Dawnstar and Markarth Side signed an agreement of mutual aid in the planned war against the other city-states, guaranteeing an even share of all conquests.
Learning of this, the king of Windhelm attempts to marry his daughter off to the king of Winter Hold; however his offer is turned away as the ruler of Winter Hold is afraid of angering the western alliance even further, what with the cities of Winter Hold and Solitude being long rivals; this forces Windhelm to seek aid in Whiterun, whose king has his own ambitions in regards to the future of Skyrim. He is more than glad to accept a woman of Ysgramor's blood as a wife for his son, strengthening the marriage with an official alliance. War swiftly breaks out, and the Tripartite Alliance is in for a surprise, having to face a joint front from Whiterun and Windhelm.
4E 16- Two years into the War of Undoing as it was later known amongst Nords, Riften is convinced to join the Whiterun-Windhelm alliance, its king unable to resist promises of ending an old conflict between Windhelm and Riften over Vernim Wood in Riften's favour, as well as aid in conquering Falkreath. Hearing of this, the king of Falkreath enters the Tripartite Alliance.
4E 17- Seeing the warring sides to be evenly matched, the king of Winter Hold finally acts, joining the Whiterun-Windhelm alliance, being faced with increasing pressure from both sides ? not only promises of lands, but also threats. Later that year in the battle of Dawnstar Winter Hold's navy manages to achieve a decisive victory over Solitude and land troops near Dawnstar.
4E 18- The siege of Dawnstar ends with the defenders capitulating. The city, bound to Solitude by a personal union between two rulers, resisted for a while; however, with no aid coming from Solitude, it is forced to surrender, ceding a large amount of its coastal possessions east of the city to Winter Hold, as well as Helarchen to Windhelm and Stonehills to Whiterun. After this, Dawnstar will never again be seen as a major power.
4E 19- The War of Undoing nears an end as the city-states of eastern Skyrim achieve several decisive victories. The forces of Whiterun and Riften capture and ravage Falkreath, dividing its lands between themselves. Up north the forces of Markarth Side are beaten back in the battle of Dunstad, the siege of Markarth Side looking to be only a matter of time. Solitude uses its allies to buy itself more time and prepare to weather the coming storm.
4E 20-23- The siege of Markarth Side. Though a long and costly affair, it eventually proves to be successful. The Tripartite Alliance falls apart completely when the king of Solitude declares himself ruler of many lands that were considered part of Markarth Side, using its downfall to gain more land. These gains, however, are incredibly short-lived, as the forces of Solitude, though managing to fight the combined forces of Whiterun, Windhelm and Winter Hold to a standstill at Dragon Bridge, fail to push them back and are at a danger of being overwhelmed, forcing the king of Solitude to surrender before his city falls like those of his allies.
4E 24- On the day of New Life Festival, the Treaty of Dragon Bridge is signed. It redraws the map of Skyrim completely, however not in the way expected. Riften doesn't gain possession of Falkreath, and in fact is forced to surrender its old claims on Vernim Wood and Sunguard in the favour of Windhelm and Whiterun respectively; Winter Hold also gains little out of the war, being granted only the lands ceded to it by Dawnstar. Markarth Side and Falkreath are made vassals of Whiterun, whose power grows massively. Windhelm also profits from the treaty, being given some of Whiterun's eastern-most lands and forcing Riften to recognize the king of Windhelm as his superior. Solitude is stripped of its lands further south of the city, being reduced to a coastal realm; however, it remains a power to be reckoned with, having managed to avoid being ruined by the armies of the cities of eastern Skyrim.
4E 30- The Whiterun-Windhelm hegemony encounters difficulties. The rulers of the two cities begin to disagree, as each wants more power, yet has nowhere to turn for it. The king of Windhelm, seeing himself as the heir of Ysgramor, also thinks of himself as the only suitable ruler of a united Skyrim; however, Whiterun wouldn't agree. The two powers know better than to let their conflict escalate into open war, however.
4E 31- Seeing a weakness in the two powers' conflict, the rulers of Winter Hold and Solitude decide to set aside their differences and take advantage of this; the Union of Dawnstar is the result. Solitude, Dawnstar and Winter Hold unite into a confederacy. Solitude is the more powerful member of it, having practically complete control over Dawnstar, however Winter Hold, in order to prevent it from siding with Whiterun or Windhelm, is granted enough freedom to make Solitude's status as the dominant member in the confederacy only a technicality, albeit still a painful one for the people of Winter Hold.
4E 36- In the swift war of Eastern Succession, Windhelm takes advantage of a situation in Riften where two candidates fight for the throne and installs a puppet ruler, keeping him in place with a military garrison in the previously technically independent city-state. This worries the king of Whiterun, as talk of 'sharing' comes from Windhelm, meaning Ysgramor's heir's designs on Falkreath now that Riften was in his hands.
4E 38- Windhelm asks for Falkreath openly; the nobility of the once-powerful city agree with his claims of its throne, as they still feel insulted at being ruled by Whiterun that played a large and direct part in the fall of Falkreath. Faced with the possibility of war and rebellion, the king of Whiterun decides to preserve peace a while longer, giving up Falkreath.
4E 40- As it grows increasingly obvious that the alliance between Windhelm and Whiterun will not hold for long, Winter Hold stirs. The union forced upon it by circumstance doesn't seem useful anymore; envoys silently set out to Windhelm and Whiterun, intending to secure non-aggression pacts in the case war broke out between Solitude and Winter Hold; an alliance with either of the powers was seen as too risky, as both wanted to see Skyrim under their own rule, and neither was willing to share power for long.
4E 41- War looms over the Confederation; the king of Solitude, having a fairly good knowledge of the plans and hopes of Winter Hold, decides to try one last time to hold the crumbling creation of his predecessor together. The Council of Dawnstar is called; however, there is little hope that the two kings will settle their differences peacefully, even in an assembly of the most influential people of both city-states.
The RP will begin with the Council of Dawnstar, where the Dawnstar Union will be broken, having held a mere ten years. The RP would focus entirely on the war between the two, however it wouldn't be only war. Solitude would consist of the city-state itself and a sub-faction, the kingdom of Dawnstar. Its ruling line dead, Dawnstar would largely be broken, but the people would still remember the better times and the men placed there by the king of Solitude to rule in his stead would style themselves 'kings of Dawnstar'; the city wouldn't have a great amount of love for Solitude due to its actions during the times of the Tripartite Alliance and the War of Undoing, for which reason it'd be the centre of political intrigue as Winter Hold tries to break Solitude's power (which, though waning, would still be great enough; Solitude was never quite broken and the years of peace allowed it to recover some of its grandeur, even if a disloyal vassal city only partially makes up for the forested lands further south of Solitude, the source of its naval might). Political intrigue wouldn't be limited only to Dawnstar, as courtiers are always vulnerable to wars and pro-enemy factions may form in any of the players' courts, working either in secret or opposing the king's authority openly; of course, whether such things happen or not be up to the players, I'm merely throwing out suggestions.
In terms of the war aspect of the RP, I think for simplicity's sake it'd be best to stick to numbers around the level of early medieval western Europe, with 10000-ish being considered a large army; as I myself believe Tamriel should have larger armies than the norm in central/eastern Europe during high/late medieval, it'll be justified by the fact that the northern lands are harsh and hard to prosper i, not to mention the many deaths during the War of Undoing, the Oblivion Crisis and the very brief invasion of Morrowind at the end of the third age. Decisive battles will not be the focus of the RP; they should stay few, so as to avoid immediately throwing forces at each other and boom death yay that'd strip the RP of much potential for atmosphere building and political intrigue.
The ultimate goal for both factions will, obviously, be to defeat the other; Winter Hold will have to get Solitude to recognize the collapse of the Confederation and Solitude will probably want to bring Winter Hold back in, except with less power. As I'm sure you all will know, this shouldn't be considered to mean that you need to go up and bang the other's gates down as fast as possible and burn everything down.
Any thoughts, suggestions? I know there are tenths of people here more adept at organizing and hosting RPs here than me, so I'd be glad to hear input from y'all and hopefully make this last and be fun.