Next year (Or very late this year) seems more plausible. Otherwise it would be like what SE did. FFXII was released 3 years after announcement....
My other theory is that they would wait until the next gen of consoles. Rumors have stated the next gen would be around 2013 or 2014... Why would they release it in 2012 and then within a year, (because of restrictions of the old consoles) have an outdated game (or less than what it could have been technology wise)?
But this is only if there will be a new generation of consoles (within the near future).
You guys drive me crazy sometimes...
First off, October will make it two years since when we know for a fact they started focusing on their next game. That doesn't mean they didn't start earlier, mind you, but we just don't have any solid proof of that. But two years is plenty of time to get to a point where they can show off the game, even if it's only a few screenshots. And don't forget, they don't have to show us anything at all until they're ready. An announcement does not equal a ton of content being released. We didn't even get the first screenshots of New Vegas until nearly a year after it was announced. Secondly, thinking that they'll wait for the next console generation that isn't even confirmed yet is silly. "Why would they release it in 2012"... did you really ask that? Do you think the year before the release of a new console will be completely devoid of any new videogames because every developer wants to "hold out" for the new generation? Come on...