Just how long can you repeat the same [censored]?
At least 31 threads. Or 6200 posts.
But really, we don't know much, but we know more than nothing. Actually we know something big. And that is the trademark which expires soon for a video game named "Skyrim."
Its the biggest solid evidence we have for TESV.
There's really nothing else to speculate on:
1. Bethesda announcing at E3 is unlikely as they have never done this before and Pete Hines has personally said it is not a good place to do so.
2. Bethesda waiting until the 'next consoles' is also highly unlikely as Sony and Microsoft have both expressed that they want to keep the current consoles for several more years. The announcements and promotions of Natal and the PS Move are evidence of this.
3. Bethesda is working on a project (they have said this), and they have specifically said that they do not make MMOs. So, we can say with confidence that the next game is not going to be an MMO.
4. Obsidian is working on New Vegas, so we can say with confidence that the project Bethesda is working on is not Fallout-related.
5. Pete Hines has specifically said they realize how successful the TES series is and they have no plans to abandon it.
6. Pete Hines has expressed that QuakeCon is a good place to announce and/or showcase games, and Zenimax wants to expand it. QuakeCon is around the same time the trademark expires.
7. Bethesda has showcased both Oblivion and Fallout 3 in Gameinformer. They are likely to continue that pattern.
8. Bethesda has announced past games first online. They are likely to continue that pattern.
Likely scenario (in my opinion):
1. TESV announced, likely online, sometime between now and trademark expiration date.
2. Showcased in a Gameinformer.
3. Showcased at QuakeCon.
4. Usual showcasing at game conventions and online and stuff until release.
5. Released a year or two from now.
I think that the 'statement of use' and 'use in commerce' complicated trademark gooblygook, will not matter all that much in the end.
I mean, there's no way they can
release TESV
this summer.