Wouldn't the new one coincide with a release if it was announced now and went on a normal development timeframe from there on? Or did I miscount?
Well if you want to use historical trademark life-cycles for Fallout 3 and Oblivion, then technically that puts the release date somewhere in 2013... but I think we all expect this one to be unique due to its compromised development (i.e. Fallout 3 interrupting the normal flow of TES games). There was likely some work put into it before FO3 and outside of the engine enhancements we are speculating the rest of their development work as been put into this game... making it very anomalous in regards to any historical data validating predictions.
Many people with valuable insights have stated the following with great backing that I too believe:
1) It will release on the current generation of consoles
2) It will release no sooner that Holiday 2011, but likely Q1 2012
The newest trademark for the game will not expire for quite some time even without a statement of use, on the order of 2014 if all the extensions are granted. What is still important to remember with all of this is that the other trademarks for merchandise and manuals have not been duplicated in anyway and are still up for expiration. The soonest would be at the end of this month. There isn't anything preventing Bethesda from a new application, or even letting these die, especially with the time they have left now on their newest mark.
If Bethesda were to look for a later release date than those outlined above, it would make sense to just let the other marks die now anyway... and afterall, they did apply for them before they took on the Fallout IP, so anyone who states precedence that they never let these types of marks die in the past would be speculating on a shoddy foundation.