[victoria gillis]

xXUpdated VersionXx

The following is a compilation of theories that have been concocted over the past few weeks in the Official TES: V Speculation Thread. I will include past predictions for anolyzing to see where we failed to meet our expectations. I will also include current predictions for further anolyzing to learn from our mistakes and fulfill our expectations, whether correct or wrong.
Thanks to all who participate in the official thread. A special thanks to the following:
xXAntibodyXx, Mr. Tissue Box, Stain, ThatOneGuy, Syltstrider, and the rest of the old-timers who got the speculation thread # 1 to where it is now. And a sincere thanks to the moderators for keeping peace in the thread and for keeping it alive.

*= assumption based off of Bethesda timelines.

The Past Predictions.

The E-threeum Theory – A theory based off the expectation of seeing a big game at a big game event, which is known as E3.
*TES: V would have been announced at (or a couple hours before the showing on the Elder Scrolls website) E3.
*The sequel to the Infernal City would have been announced not long after the conclusion of E3.
*TES: V was speculated to be released sometime between mid 2011 and early 2012.
Many rumors spread around the Internet, fueling this theory, but in the end we were doped. However Game Informer never even acknowledged the mere chance of an announcement at E3., which gave rise to the existence of the next theory…

The Informium Augustus Theory – a theory based on a tweet that stated the August cover would make fantasy fans “crap” themselves.
*TES: V would have been announced hours before the cover reveal on the Elder Scrolls website.
*The sequel to the Infernal City would have been announced on the Game Informer issue.
*TES: V would have been released sometime between mid 2011 and mid 2012.
After Dragon Age 2 was revealed to be the cover many lost hope, but there are many more theories that need speculating and arguing. Such as the following…

The Current Predictions

The Serperium Theory (Serper's theory) - TES: V is released on the next generation consoles. This theory is based off of an unknown and offline source that has yet to be revealed…
*The sequel to Infernal City is announced along with release date in late 2010/early 2011.
*The announcement of Elder Scrolls V would most likely take place sometime in 2011.
* TES: V shown at E3 2012.
*The release will be between late 2012 and mid 2013 on the new platforms.

The M’aiqium Theories
In honor of M’aiq
As of now the following two theories are what the some of the experienced speculators are aligned with at the moment (such as xXAntibodyXx, Stain, ThatOneGuy and etc.)

The M'aiqium Theory #1 (the majority) – TES: V is released on the current generation consoles.
*TES V is announced at Quakecon with an issue in the September cover of Game Informer (2010).
*The sequel to Infernal City is announced along with release date in late 2010/early 2011.
*TES: V is shown at E3 2011.
*Release sometime in 2012 on current generation platforms.

The M'aiqium Theory #2 (the majority) – TES: V is released on current generation consoles.
*TES: V is announced sometime between late 2010 and mid 2011.
*The sequel to Infernal City is announced along with release date (maybe) with TES: V if announced in late 2010 or early 2011.
*TES: V is shown at E3 2011 (maybe shown at E3 2012 too?)
*Release sometime in 2012 on current generation platforms.

The Faelianium Theory (or as some like to call the "Cosmic" Theory) (a minor part of the minority) – TES: V is never announced. Oblivion was Bethesda Game Studio's crowning achievement and will go down in history as a legend (along with Morrowind).
The sequel to Infernal City is lost to the halls of http://www.uesp.net/wiki/Lore:Hermaeus_Mora.
Oblivion and Morrowind will become so heavily modded some might even call them sequels to their original games.
We will all die without ever playing the Elder Scrolls V.

The Mustangium Theory (Mustangs10's theory)
*2nd novel is announced in September, released in November.
*TES: V is announced Spring 2011; Perhaps May-June Game Informer.
*E3 2011, perhaps a small demo and more info.
*TES: V is released Spring-Summer 2012.

The Keatoniun Kitsunium Theory (Keaton Kitsune’s theory)
*TES: V announced between mid 2010 and March 2011.
*TES: V released between late 2011 and early 2012 on current generation of platforms.

The Love Theory (LoveIsReal’s theory)
*Game Informer announcement of TES V within the next three months.
*TES: V is left with no new information until E3 2011.
*Game is set for release in November 2011.
*Game is delayed and set for release in April 2012.

The Johnnium Theory (Johnn123’s theory)
*Second Elder Scrolls Novel announced at Quakecon, alongside TES: V.
*Book comes out early December with info on TES: V inside.
*TES: V shown at E3 2011.
*TES: V released late 2011.

The Conspiracy Theory (Kristoffer’s theory) - Game was completed already, in complete secrecy, and waiting for a late November 2010 release for the Christmas shopping blitz. An announcement will be made on Black Friday that the game is IN STORES NOW.

The Mr. Tissue Box Theory – in the last couple of threads, Mr. Tissue Box was tweeting with a Game Informer employee about September’s magazine cover. The September magazine may not be TES: V after all, but Batman: Arkham Asylum 2. This would interfere with the acclaimed M’aiqium Theory #1.


If there are any theories that you would like me to submit to the list, please feel free to say.

This was absolutely excellent. Quakecon announcement makes so much sense. Then wait one year + a bit for a production delay, we got ourselves our game!

[Tiff Clark]

I am loving the recent amount of hype and speculation over the possible TES5.
Now I had an idea about a title for the new TES because I had at home some board game that said 5 Game Set.
This prompted me to rearrange it to TES 5 Mage however I have looked around for potential (actual) titles.

This is what i got

TES5 Shadowrealm
TES5 Empire
TES5 Elsweyr
TES5 Summerset Isle
TES5 Skyrim
and finally randomly "Project Offset"
then mine TES5 Mage

Now because its me i prefer how my title came about however i think it should be put down to vote and because i'm new to this forum site i have no idea how to do one so i'll vote for my own and then you can all vote for your favourites

I absolutely love Oblivion and Fallout 3, I'm looking forward to Fallout New Vegas, Falllout 4 and the next Elder Scrolls

Considering how well Bethesda's Graphic ability is coming along I certainly think that each and every game they release is always going to be better than their last which is why its worth the wait

Thanks for reading my ramble
Lu10nt - The Idea Maniac

[bimsy]

So I get flamed for thinking it will be a next gen game but all these people that are SO SURE that esv will be at quakecon must be right and that's why nobody flames them right? Get real...

[Veronica Flores]

So I get flamed for thinking it will be a next gen game but all these people that are SO SURE that esv will be at quakecon must be right and that's why nobody flames them right? Get real...

But you are ignoring the fact that the new consoles will come out 2013 if not later and you are so sure that serper's source that he didn't quote is true so quakecon is way more likely than serper's unquoted source.

[Auguste Bartholdi]

So I get flamed for thinking it will be a next gen game but all these people that are SO SURE that esv will be at quakecon must be right and that's why nobody flames them right? Get real...

Did you read my long rant a couple pages back about why it wouldn't be next gen? You really should:

I read just fine, and you clearly said maybe they put the Elder Scrolls on hold, I don't see your reasoning there. If they started working on TES:V right after Oblivion (not fully but we're fairly certain that they had at least a small group working on it) in 2006 how would they have known when the next generation would be? Here we are 4 years later and we are still unsure when it will be. Bethesda wouldn't put TES on hold indefinitely like that especially because people tend to like to see sequels at least every 5 years or the not as loyal fans will lose interest and by the time the next generation comes the people playing the games will be a whole other generation as well. TES could be, for all they know, long forgotten by the time the next generation comes out.

It is pretty clear it will not be a next gen game. So why would they put it on hold because Oblivion was their crowning achievement? If I was a game company and I made a big hit of a game, I wouldn't just quit there. I would continue with the series and make more money off of it, and I would want that money sooner rather than later so I could move on and make more games. Especially if I was sure that the more games I made the more I would sell. New IPs don't sell as well as old familiar IPs, and new IPs require more marketing. I also see no need to keep a new IP a secret, this secret project is one of two things TESV or Fallout 4, which of those two do you think is more likely?

To add to that, current consoles have millions of players, but new consoles would only have a small amount as with the timeframe you are suggesting, TES:V would come out at the very beginning of the next gen. Furthermore, if they weren't planning on releasing a game this generation they would be making/adopting a completely new engine, and they are clearly not, they are retooling their old engine. As I mention in the quoted post, assuming that they started working on TES:V in 2006 and they planned it for next generation, that would have required them to have the technology right then to program for, which is impossible because the next gen won't be coming out for a few more years.

No one is sure that it will be at Quakecon, that idea is just a wild hope. But you suggesting that it will be next gen is worse.
Seriously, how can you possibly think that this will be a next gen game? Get real....

[Chloe Mayo]

So I get flamed for thinking it will be a next gen game but all these people that are SO SURE that esv will be at quakecon must be right and that's why nobody flames them right? Get real...

The only folks who need to get real here are you. The next generation of consoles is far from close. We're probably at the half life of current ones. New games still push the graphical envelope on them without pushing the console to its limits.

In addition, TES pushes the graphical bar, sure, but also recall that both Morrowind and Oblivion were released at the beginning of the console's life, when those graphics were groundbreaking. If, for any reason, the consoles couldn't take a certain level of graphics, then do you honestly believe Bethesda would put off the game for YEARS at a time just to achieve those? No, when you develop for consoles, you develop for certain limitations, and game development has to follow those restrictions.

If TES V's development began within the last 2 years, there is no way they could be making it for next gen consoles, since they don't even EXIST YET. If anything, two years ago, they were just getting into early alpha stages with making new consoles, which we probably will not hear about until the projected 2013 date.

This all comes down to Microsoft and Sony needing to keep these consoles around longer because, at first, they actually WERE LOSING MONEY ON THEM until VERY recently (within the last year or two). They aren't going to rush to the next generation if this one has just barely started making them money...except Nintendo, because the Wii prints money.

[Samantha Mitchell]

Did you read my long rant a couple pages back about why it wouldn't be next gen? You really should:



No one is sure that it will be at Quakecon, that idea is just a wild hope. But you suggesting that it will be next gen is worse.
Seriously, how can you possibly think that this will be a next gen game?

Your long rant was just as you said...a rant...full of opinion on why it would not be a next gen game not full of fact so let's get that straight.

[-__^]

Your long rant was just as you said...a rant full of opinion on why it would not be a next gen game not full of fact so let's get that straight.

And your stuff is fact? :rofl:

[Jessie Butterfield]

I think I found an article on GI online that debunks the Mr. Tissue Box Theory. The article is all about domain names registered by the WB that could reveal the official title of Arkham Asylum 2. If AA2 was going to be the September issue wouldn't you think GI would already know the game's official name?

Here's the link: http://gameinformer.com/b/news/archive/2010/07/12/riddle-me-this-do-wb-domains-reveal-next-batman-game-s-title.aspx

[Russell Davies]

Your long rant was just as you said...a rant...full of opinion on why it would not be a next gen game not full of fact so let's get that straight.

Opinion based on logic and common knowledge. No one knows when it will be released so there are no "facts" but what makes your opinion more valid than mine if you can't at least back it up? I haven't seen you give a lengthy explaination of why you are right. You have just agreed with others (specifically people who made up sources *cough* Serper *cough*)

[Jimmie Allen]

So I see a lot of people think esv will release in 2012 and the next gen consoles will release somewhere around 2013. That's a one year difference at the most you people make it seem like it would be an eternity to have esv be next gen...it would ONE YEAR at the most!

[meghan lock]

So I see a lot of people think esv will release in 2012 and the next gen consoles will release somewhere around 2013. That's a one year difference at the most you people make it seem like it would be an eternity to have esv be next gen...it would ONE YEAR at the most!

But the game will already have been made so it would be sitting on the shelf for a year before anyone can use it.

[Mélida Brunet]

But the game will already have been made so it would be sitting on the shelf for a year before anyone can use it.

Nobody knows for sure if they have been working on esv and if they have nobody knows truly how far along they are. They could have done minor work here and there while working on something else or the entire project could have been put on an indefinate hold or they could be very far along in development.

[Curveballs On Phoenix]

Nobody knows for sure if they have been working on esv and if they have nobody knows truly how far along they are. They could have done minor work here and there while working on something else or the entire project could have been put on an indefinate hold or they could be very far along in development.

I was going by this:

So I see a lot of people think esv will release in 2012 and the next gen consoles will release somewhere around 2013. That's a one year difference at the most you people make it seem like it would be an eternity to have esv be next gen...it would ONE YEAR at the most!

[Robert Garcia]

So I get flamed for thinking it will be a next gen game but all these people that are SO SURE that esv will be at quakecon must be right and that's why nobody flames them right? Get real...

IF you think someone is flaming you, hit the report button and let the moderators sort it out. :stare: This is not just directed at the poster I am quoting, but if you all cannot toss around speculation and idea without getting mad at each other and forcing the moderators to constantly close and clean-up the thread, you all will end up with warnings, not just cranky in-thread moderator remarks.

You all might bear in mind that no one is right in this thread. And no one is wrong. Why? Because it is speculation and none of you - even those amusingly purporting to have "insider" information - have any official comments, and thus no solid facts. It's entertaining to speculate - keep a little perspective here people.

[Britney Lopez]

Nobody knows for sure if they have been working on esv and if they have nobody knows truly how far along they are. They could have done minor work here and there while working on something else or the entire project could have been put on an indefinate hold or they could be very far along in development.

Well no one knows for sure whether or not the new consoles are being worked on either, but you seem pretty sure about that. TES:V and the consoles kind of go hand in hand, if the consoles aren't even in development then neither is TES:V. You see where I am going, need I explain why it is improbable to think that the series is on indefinite hold?

[Charity Hughes]

The next generation of consoles is far from close. We're probably at the half life of current ones.

This all comes down to Microsoft and Sony needing to keep these consoles around longer because, at first, they actually WERE LOSING MONEY ON THEM until VERY recently (within the last year or two). They aren't going to rush to the next generation if this one has just barely started making them money...except Nintendo, because the Wii prints money.

Half way through the life of current consoles doesn't mean new consoles can't be released. The PS2 is still on store shelves for example.

MS and Sony expect to lose money on hardware sales. It's the norm. That money is made back through software (game) sales. Nintendo is just going their own way by making profit from hardware sales. Somehow it's worked. As a result, Nintendo isn't likely to rush to the next generation for the same reason you suggest they will: the Wii prints money. Don't fix it if it ain't broke. Natal and Move are a strategy to shift more hardware sales, but these aren't long-term strategies at all. It's an attempt to breathe life into a dying generation, to give it one final surge before the new consoles arrive, probably being demonstrated at E3 2012.

I do believe TES:V will still be on the current gen though. As many of you have pointed out: Bethesda Games Studio needs to be doing something, and wants to make money. They're a business. It's very unlikely that SDKs for the next gen have been handed out yet, and certainly weren't handed out one or two years ago. I'd expect TES:V to be the final BGS game on the current gen, with their following game (FO4?) being a next-gen release once they have the knowledge they need to make a game that looks and runs amazingly. They will have learned from the issues they had with designing Oblivion for a future machine with unknown specs.

[Rachael]

Serper/Showstopper, you both still as of yet have not answered (WITH PROOF) my questions here.....

"Just so nobody generalizes, I don't believe I've stated anywhere that I ever have followed a GI article in anticipation, I'm only checking the elderscrolls site itself. Since the filing of the new trademark, I'm also dropping my expectations of an announcement this summer.


It has been stated that ever since Fallout 3, that Bethesda was going back to re-tool their engine that they used for oblivion and fallout. This to me means that they hadn't even started, really, the programming and world building for TES at that time. Sure, they probably had some art done, and writers working on the main story and quests, but it would make no sense to start programming really, when the engine itself needed work. Changing the engine in a game is like re-laying the foundation to a house, you need to then start from the ground up. Granted, you can take bits and pieces here and there from the old house, the parts that you like and that worked well, and put them on the new foundation. That's the difference between a renovation of a house, and a complete rebuild, they are "renovating" the engine.

Now to my point, this "renovating" would prolly take up to a year, maybe a year and a half at worse case. How do I guess this, well, I'm actually trying to do the same myself, and its taking me a WHILE, much much longer. Fact is too, I'm not building anything near the scope yet of TES. I realize they have a team of programmers there, but the timing sounds about right. If anyone thinks different feel free to adjust my thinking. I'm still in the process of producing my first game and am learning. (Of course, I'm actually building my own engine too, but anyways) Therefore, going from the time that Fallout 3 was released, October 28th, 2008. From this point if we can agree that the average TES game as of late takes 4 years to develop, but we'll subtract half a year for the fact that SOME work woulda been done prior, we are looking at spring 2012.

2012 is WELL withing the current console generations predicted lifespan. Not only that, but WHY would they be re-tooling their engine NOW and not release another game when they would have to do it AGAIN after getting the development specs for the next-generation consoles to release a game then?

Doesn't it make sense that if they are re-tooling the engine they have NOW they are trying to push something thru during this generations' life-cycle?? Sure, they might have changed their minds, but I don't know many companies who puchase licsensing rights to a game engine just to produce TWO games off that engine, at least without very good reason, like the engine svcks. Anyways, I do believe that TES V WILL be out for this current generation consoles. If I'm wrong, well, no biggie, but I truly believe my arguments have more backing than that of the fact that TES V will be next-gen. "

If you guys can legitimately convince me otherwise, I'll switch sides, if not, well then please stop the useless one-line "it will be next-gen, for Realz"

[Kelly Osbourne Kelly]

They will have learned from the issues they had with designing Oblivion for a future machine with unknown specs.

What issues will they have learned from?

[X(S.a.R.a.H)X]

What issues will they have learned from?

They had no idea of the 360's hardware specs for the most part of engine development, let alone the PS3's. Texture quality, particularly in the distance, was poor. Shadows which were originally working proved to be too resource intensive for the 360 and had to be cut for lack of time to rework them. Fallout 3 (built with the same engine) proved to be devastating on the PS3 in terms of performance.

You'd think that with the amount of criticism their engine received, and how inferior it looks and runs compared to later games that had the information necessary to build an optimized engine, that Bethesda will want to wait a little while longer before diving headfirst into the next generation of consoles, no?

[Timara White]

What issues will they have learned from?

That they shouldn't guess what specs a console is going to have,the closest thing bethesda had to the xbox 360 was the xbox.

[LijLuva]

I'm not taking sides but I have to say this: if TES: is released in 2012, then why not 2013 with the next generation's supposed release date. I mean, more development time = better game overall. They might be reworking their engine to get ready for the next generation.

[Klaire]

I'm not taking sides but I have to say this: if TES: is released in 2012, then why not 2013 with the next generation's supposed release date. I mean, more development time = better game overall. They might be reworking their engine to get ready for the next generation.

This.

@blog reader: I'm sure BGS had some knowledge of what the specs on the 360 would be or at least had conversations with people in the know to get a rough estimate of what they would be working with.

[Taylah Haines]

I'm not taking sides but I have to say this: if TES: is released in 2012, then why not 2013 with the next generation's supposed release date. I mean, more development time = better game overall. They might be reworking their engine to get ready for the next generation.

The above few posts answer that question. It's not a definite answer, since they may well be developing for the next-gen, but we'd hope they'd learn from their past experiences in that area.

An engine that makes the most of the current gen will produce a phenomenal looking game by today's standards. An engine comprised of guesswork for the next-gen will once again lead to a series of games built on an inferior engine to all other engines available. Would you rather they jumped to the next-gen now, and their next few games look mediocre to all the other big next-gen games? Or would you rather they wait until the next-gen is a known quantity and produce an engine that really takes advantage of the new consoles and pushes their games to the limits?

(Please refrain from the 'I don't care about graphics, it's all about the gameplay' replies. Engines relate to gameplay just as much as graphics, and that topic is irrelevant to the point anyway.)

[Umpyre Records]

I'm not taking sides but I have to say this: if TES: is released in 2012, then why not 2013 with the next generation's supposed release date. I mean, more development time = better game overall. They might be reworking their engine to get ready for the next generation.

Assuming that 2013 is the release for the new consoles, currently not even Microsoft or Sony know exactly when, which means neither does Bethesda.