[Tiffany Castillo]

What do you mean, it could be Deja Vu ? Deja Vu isn't about predicting the future. Dreams are products of your imagination. This doesn't really add to the speculation.

[Karine laverre]

I don't understand some of you guys. Isn't the main reason for releasing a game in the Fall AKA "holiday season" for religious celebrations where people give and get presents (Christmas, etc..)? Well then why would Bethesda announce it after New Vegas is released and before Christmas; not too many people Christmas shop in October... They've been advertising New Vegas like crazy and it doesn't seem like, after all this advertisemant, they would even want to risk a tiny percentage of sales going down from an announcement of the soon-to-be most amazing game ever to grace an Xbox, PlayStation, and Computer. Henceforth (I really wanted to use this word), I think everyone who is saying it will be announced after December are correct!

[Kortniie Dumont]

I don't understand some of you guys. Isn't the main reason for releasing a game in the Fall AKA "holiday season" for religious celebrations where people give and get presents (Christmas, etc..)? Well then why would Bethesda announce it after New Vegas is released and before Christmas; not too many people Christmas shop in October... They've been advertising New Vegas like crazy and it doesn't seem like, after all this advertisemant, they would even want to risk a tiny percentage of sales going down from an announcement of the soon-to-be most amazing game ever to grace an Xbox, PlayStation, and Computer. Henceforth (I really wanted to use this word), I think everyone who is saying it will be announced after December are correct!

You mean to tell me that by announcing a game before Christmas, people will not buy Fallout New Vegas as a Christmas gift because next year there will be a great game coming out? So on Christmas morning the kids get to open up little boxes that have pictures of TESV and say "Hey Kids! Next Year you get a game! This year you get nothing!"

I guess if that bizarro world you live in is real then yeah, they'll wait, but for those of us who inhabit reality this particular reason doesn't hold a lot of clout. They may still wait to announce the game until after the holidays, though I just doubt this is the reason.

[SaVino GοΜ]

Ya you are completely right. I completely messed up my post trying to get my point across haha. The whole Christmas thing is stupid but what I was trying to say that, even though i dont personally believe this, is that if an announcement would effect the sales, they would wait a couple months after release, if not more.

[Liv Brown]

What do you mean, it could be Deja Vu ? Deja Vu isn't about predicting the future. Dreams are products of your imagination. This doesn't really add to the speculation.

Well if it's not called Deja Vu then I have no idea what it is called. But haven't you ever had a dream, just a small segment of a dream that later becomes reality. I had a dream about the Skaron leaders meeting John on Farscape years before I ever saw Farscape. Last year I had a test that I dreamt of a few weeks before.

[Mélida Brunet]

Well if it's not called Deja Vu then I have no idea what it is called. But haven't you ever had a dream, just a small segment of a dream that later becomes reality. I had a dream about the Skaron leaders meeting John on Farscape years before I ever saw Farscape. Last year I had a test that I dreamt of a few weeks before.

You probably mean a premonition.
A deja vu is that experience where you'd swear you've already been through this situation... Which is just usually kind of like a short circuit in your brains, creating a false memory and the experience you've seen this before.

[Dewayne Quattlebaum]

Ya you are completely right. I completely messed up my post trying to get my point across haha. The whole Christmas thing is stupid but what I was trying to say that, even though i dont personally believe this, is that if an announcement would effect the sales, they would wait a couple months after release, if not more.

I really don't think they run the risk of losing any NV sales if they announce TES V shortly afterward. This is what I think may happen:

October 19th: New Vegas released
Late November: TES V announced
Early December: GI cover is revealed to be TES V

I figure it would make sense for them to want to wait at least a month after New Vegas is released so that all the hype for New Vegas will have died down a bit and they can start to hype TES V, hence why I think Late November is the earliest they will want to announce it. But of course I'm just guessing, and will likely be proven wrong.

[Jaki Birch]

Actually, deja vu is just a feeling. Sometimes you get it because you brain short circuits, but you can also get it when having an experience very similar to a (non-imaginary) previous one. Deja vu is a strong feeling that "this has happened before." WanderingRogue probably got deja vu watching Farscape for the first time either because he once had a dream similar to a scene in Farscape or because, as TagDaze suggested, his brain short circuited and caused him to falsely believe that he'd once dreamed of Farscape.

[Chica Cheve]

I really don't think they run the risk of losing any NV sales if they announce TES V shortly afterward. This is what I think may happen:

October 19th: New Vegas released
Late November: TES V announced
Early December: GI cover is revealed to be TES V

I figure it would make sense for them to want to wait at least a month after New Vegas is released so that all the hype for New Vegas will have died down a bit and they can start to hype TES V, hence why I think Late November is the earliest they will want to announce it. But of course I'm just guessing, and will likely be proven wrong.

Yup, this is my "current" belief as well. I have had many and been wrong before too, but I am with you on this one as it seems the most likely considering all we do know, which still isn't a heck of a lot.

[victoria johnstone]

So two more months then, huh? Darn, I was kinda hoping for an October announcement. We starting a pool on which day in November?

Man, it occurs to me that it's only been four months since I found this thread.

[~Sylvia~]

So two more months then, huh? Darn, I was kinda hoping for an October announcement. We starting a pool on which day in November?

Man, it occurs to me that it's only been four months since I found this thread.

The time on the forum does seem weird. I've actually been on here for almost 2 years (I just hardly post)... and we can only hope for a November announcement. Todd's comments of being ready to show the game has to make Pete not want to wait too long to decide to unveil it.

[Darian Ennels]

We starting a pool on which day in November?

November is only the earliest month they'll likely announce it in so betting on dates is silly. I personally just have a good feeling it will be in late November, so that Game Informer can reveal the cover early in December. If it isn't announced in late November or early December, we'll have to wait and see what happens in the following months. I personally think it will definitely be announced before February, because any month after that seems too far away considering how close Todd made the announcement seem.

[Avril Churchill]

So two more months then, huh? Darn, I was kinda hoping for an October announcement. We starting a pool on which day in November?

Man, it occurs to me that it's only been four months since I found this thread.

November 7th

[Sandeep Khatkar]

November 7th

I guarantee it will not be on a Sunday no matter what happens.

It also won't be on a Saturday.

Guess what?

There is only a 4.23% chance it will be on a Monday!

How do I know this?

History!

The most likely day is a Thursday at 37.64%...

But even that is just over a third... Oh by the way this is based upon marketing data compiled over the last 30 years with console game announcements. I was able to gain access to 18 separate databases and by cross-referencing them against each other I was able to create a model for game announcements. There is a factor that I had to include to skew the data, I had to separate the games lists by genre because there were so many sports games it was insane, and they obviously followed the cycle of the sport, so they had to be excluded. I then weighted by genre and exclusivity so that I could account for console specific time frames and religious holidays (Japanese consumerism vs US consumption).

Ultimately what I came to was that if an rpg released for multiple consoles was to occur it would be announced on either a Thursday or a Tuesday. Well, based upon historical evidence.

We shall see!

[Lucy]

I don't think they will announce it this year either, because of New Vegas. They are hyping this game up as much as they can, and I seriously doubt they will take focus away from New Vegas by announcing TES V now. It will overshadow the PR for New Vegas, and shift the focus over from a game being released now to a game being released in maybe a year's time.

[Austin England]

I don't think they will announce it this year either, because of New Vegas. They are hyping this game up as much as they can, and I seriously doubt they will take focus away from New Vegas by announcing TES V now. It will overshadow the PR for New Vegas, and shift the focus over from a game being released now to a game being released in maybe a year's time.

I really don't think it's going to effect NV if they announce it in Nov or Dec... They wouldn't want it to steal it's thunder before and right up to the release of NV... but once it's out.. it's out... I really can't think of any reason why a ESV announcement in Nov or Dec would have any negative effect on NV sales. People aren't going to stow away their $60 to save for a game that's going to be released a year later. That's just silly. If anything it just brings more attention to Bethesda, which can only help NV if anything.

[Jade Muggeridge]

I really don't think it's going to effect NV if they announce it in Nov or Dec... They wouldn't want it to steal it's thunder before and right up to the release of NV... but once it's out.. it's out... I really can't think of any reason why a ESV announcement in Nov or Dec would have any negative effect on NV sales. People aren't going to stow away their $60 to save for a game that's going to be released a year later. That's just silly. If anything it just brings more attention to Bethesda, which can only help NV if anything.

For the hundred millionth time, THIS.

[Cody Banks]

I don't think they will announce it this year either, because of New Vegas. They are hyping this game up as much as they can, and I seriously doubt they will take focus away from New Vegas by announcing TES V now. It will overshadow the PR for New Vegas, and shift the focus over from a game being released now to a game being released in maybe a year's time.

Uh, not this stale argument again. ME2 and DA:O were announced and came out within a couple months of each other. Did that hurt sales? Not at all; actually, it probably drove sales of DA to have ME2 coming out so soon afterward. We know there is at least 8 months (probably) between announcement and release. There will be no effect if they announce it.

[Pixie]

my prediction:

announcement: December

GI issue cover: January or February issue...so we'll get it in dec. or jan.

release: 6-9 months after GI cover. so i think sept. 2011 is the latest we will get TESV:"insert title"

[Wayne Cole]

I can understand the feeling that announcing TES V would overshadow releasing FONV. However I think if they did announce TES V a bit before or after FONV's release it would actually boost sales rather than bite in to them; people aren't going to hear that TES V is a year away and then decide they really don't want to buy FONV but they might go pick up a copy because the Elder Scrolls V announcement whet their appetite for an open world RPG.

However while it wouldn't surprise me greatly if Bethesda announced TES V around the FONV release I don't think we'll hear about it until 2011. Whatever the situation when Bethesda announces their next game it will get a lot of media attention, especially if it's TES V, but if they announce it now they'll soon be competing with BlizzCon buzz and if they wait for that to die down they'll be announcing it during the holiday buzz. In my admittedly amateur opinion I think it makes sense to wait for early 2011 so they aren't competing for attention.

[james kite]

I can understand the feeling that announcing TES V would overshadow releasing FONV. However I think if they did announce TES V a bit before or after FONV's release it would actually boost sales rather than bite in to them; people aren't going to hear that TES V is a year away and then decide they really don't want to buy FONV but they might go pick up a copy because the Elder Scrolls V announcement whet their appetite for an open world RPG.

However while it wouldn't surprise me greatly if Bethesda announced TES V around the FONV release I don't think we'll hear about it until 2011. Whatever the situation when Bethesda announces their next game it will get a lot of media attention, especially if it's TES V, but if they announce it now they'll soon be competing with BlizzCon buzz and if they wait for that to die down they'll be announcing it during the holiday buzz. In my admittedly amateur opinion I think it makes sense to wait for early 2011 so they aren't competing for attention.

I can see them announcing it in January, but I can't see them waiting to announce it past February. Todd made it sound like it was too close for them to wait all the way until March or later. Plus, they don't want to wait until too long into 2011 or else they might miss the chance to release it in the holiday season of 2011.

[Steve Fallon]

Winter 2011 does seem far more likely than spring 2011. If they continue their tradition of magazine previews chances are they'll unveil the game at the end of a month with a magazine preview following the next month. A late January announcement and a February release magazine would fit this well.

[Leonie Connor]

Winter 2011 does seem far more likely than spring 2011. If they continue their tradition of magazine previews chances are they'll unveil the game at the end of a month with a magazine preview following the next month. A late January announcement and a February release magazine would fit this well.

Plus, they may want to announce sometime before GDC 2011 on February 28. Not that they'll definitely want to show it there but you never know. :shrug:

[Tanya Parra]

Plus, they may want to announce sometime before GDC 2011 on February 28. Not that they'll definitely want to show it there but you never know. :shrug:

It really depends on how hard and fast they're going to hit us with it. If the way Todd was talking is true (to our perceptions of "fast") then we may see something akin to an announcement and release within the same year.

Another issue is whether they'll announce it as soon as we think or if they'll wait. Once again, if what Todd said is really true (to our standards of "fast"), then the time between announcement and release (and presumably, because of the previous, also the fastest time between the beginning of production and announcement) will be the shortest yet. Assuming production began around 2008 (the same time Fallout 3 finished), 4 years is the general max production time for Bethesda games, and that Todd is correct about the speed of their announcement, then the game must release sometime 2011 to keep true to all of these limits (as this would give it a 3 year production time, which is indeed less than 4 years and also the fastest announcement to release yet).

[meg knight]

It really depends on how hard and fast they're going to hit us with it. If the way Todd was talking is true (to our perceptions of "fast") then we may see something akin to an announcement and release within the same year.

Another issue is whether they'll announce it as soon as we think or if they'll wait. Once again, if what Todd said is really true (to our standards of "fast"), then the time between announcement and release (and presumably, because of the previous, also the fastest time between the beginning of production and announcement) will be the shortest yet. Assuming production began around 2008 (the same time Fallout 3 finished), 4 years is the general max production time for Bethesda games, and that Todd is correct about the speed of their announcement, then the game must release sometime 2011 to keep true to all of these limits (as this would give it a 3 year production time, which is indeed less than 4 years and also the fastest announcement to release yet).

Which makes sense. Oblivion was in production for four years with 60 people. They have 90 on this game so it'd make sense for them to shave some time off this release.