[Mandy Muir]

I wish they would hurry up and tell us allready. Gees. :ahhh:

[Phillip Brunyee]

I wish they would hurry up and tell us allready. Gees. :ahhh:

An announcement wouldn't be that much news anyway.
Personally, I wish they would hurry up and SHOW us already.

[D LOpez]

An announcement wouldn't be that much news anyway.
Personally, I wish they would hurry up and SHOW us already.

I disagree, once they announce their next game, I will finally be able to prepare for a new IP or ESV. Big news for me personally!

[CHangohh BOyy]

I disagree, once they announce their next game, I will finally be able to prepare for a new IP or ESV. Big news for me personally!

Big news for me also. New game = New PC.

Announcement before Christmas, release late summer 2011.

Namaste

[jasminε]

It was me, but I'm kind of hoping it was just a big coincidence because if they don't announce it in November, their next "magic month" isn't until March.

http://i56.tinypic.com/1570qbp.jpg

It's an interesting chart but the events you chose seem a bit odd. For example you have the Fallout 3 announcement on there but I'd argue this is largely meaningless - it just tells us when they signed the contract with Interplay. The Fallout 3 unveiling (which you also include) is far more important but here they're weighted the same.

About half of those dates are prior to BGS's big expansion in 2005/2006 which immediately makes half of them potentially irrelevant. Some are dated for other reasons, for example May looks pretty important but that's because E3 used to be in May, remove that and Morrowind's release stands alone.

If Bethesda does have "magic months" then wouldn't officially announced release dates be more important than actual ones? Both Morrowind and Oblivion were originally announced with December release dates but here December is an unimportant month. August is also an apparently unimportant month in this chart but now that Bethesda is participating in QuakeCon it looks like it will be quite important going forward.

I'm certainly a fan of using Bethesda's past behavior to speculate on future moves but this smacks more of numerology than anything else. Bethesda does have a habit of releasing information just before or just after the big convention season - consider the unveiling of Fallout 3 and Oblivion. However lately the con season has gotten much longer so it may be difficult to use this detail as well.

[Chrissie Pillinger]

It's an interesting chart but the events you chose seem a bit odd. For example you have the Fallout 3 announcement on there but I'd argue this is largely meaningless - it just tells us when they signed the contract with Interplay. The Fallout 3 unveiling (which you also include) is far more important but here they're weighted the same.

About half of those dates are prior to BGS's big expansion in 2005/2006 which immediately makes half of them potentially irrelevant. Some are dated for other reasons, for example May looks pretty important but that's because E3 used to be in May, remove that and Morrowind's release stands alone.

If Bethesda does have "magic months" then wouldn't officially announced release dates be more important than actual ones? Both Morrowind and Oblivion were originally announced with December release dates but here December is an unimportant month. August is also an apparently unimportant month in this chart but now that Bethesda is participating in QuakeCon it looks like it will be quite important going forward.

I'm certainly a fan of using Bethesda's past behavior to speculate on future moves but this smacks more of numerology than anything else. Bethesda does have a habit of releasing information just before or just after the big convention season - consider the unveiling of Fallout 3 and Oblivion. However lately the con season has gotten much longer so it may be difficult to use this detail as well.

Well most of the con season wraps up this and next month, I believe that Eurogamer Expo is the last big con for the season. I would imagine it will be announced before GDC 011 so they can talk about development of it as they did with Fall Out 3.



There was a far better flow chart that somebody had posted on one of the earlier posts going through the development cycles. Does anybody know were that one is?

ah, this one is a bit more relevent though not the one I was looking for.

[img]http://probablefailure.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/09/fouryearcycle.png[/img]

[Ross]

The biggest flaw i see in "drawing attention away from FO:NV" is the 2nd novel... If they were to announce the 2nd novel now, it would draw virtually no attention away from FO:NV, since they are 2 different mediums and 2 different types of stories.

said it before: if we're lucky, we'll get Book #2 announcement and TES:V announcement at the same time. Otherwise, it will be book, followed by game

[GLOW...]

The biggest flaw i see in "drawing attention away from FO:NV" is the 2nd novel... If they were to announce the 2nd novel now, it would draw virtually no attention away from FO:NV, since they are 2 different mediums and 2 different types of stories.

said it before: if we're lucky, we'll get Book #2 announcement and TES:V announcement at the same time. Otherwise, it will be book, followed by game

True, it could easily be a second novel announcement, though I wish they would just confirm the game along with the novel!
Though then you would be looking at a March announcement for the game.

[adam holden]

I'd assume the novel will be announced soon, released shortly before Christmas, and the announcement will be somewhat after that.

[Trista Jim]

It's an interesting chart but the events you chose seem a bit odd. For example you have the Fallout 3 announcement on there but I'd argue this is largely meaningless - it just tells us when they signed the contract with Interplay. The Fallout 3 unveiling (which you also include) is far more important but here they're weighted the same.

About half of those dates are prior to BGS's big expansion in 2005/2006 which immediately makes half of them potentially irrelevant. Some are dated for other reasons, for example May looks pretty important but that's because E3 used to be in May, remove that and Morrowind's release stands alone.

If Bethesda does have "magic months" then wouldn't officially announced release dates be more important than actual ones? Both Morrowind and Oblivion were originally announced with December release dates but here December is an unimportant month. August is also an apparently unimportant month in this chart but now that Bethesda is participating in QuakeCon it looks like it will be quite important going forward.

I'm certainly a fan of using Bethesda's past behavior to speculate on future moves but this smacks more of numerology than anything else. Bethesda does have a habit of releasing information just before or just after the big convention season - consider the unveiling of Fallout 3 and Oblivion. However lately the con season has gotten much longer so it may be difficult to use this detail as well.

I thought about using the month a game was originally to be released in but I didn't really see the point in it if the game wasn't actually released at that time. :shrug:

Anyway I only made that chart as something for us to speculate on, not as an attempt to make it a fact.

There was a far better flow chart that somebody had posted on one of the earlier posts going through the development cycles. Does anybody know were that one is?

ah, this one is a bit more relevent though not the one I was looking for.

[img]http://probablefailure.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/09/fouryearcycle.png[/img]

Which is just a rip-off of http://img695.imageshack.us/img695/1057/timeline17.png. :glare:

[Gavin boyce]

I thought about using the month a game was originally to be released in but I didn't really see the point in it if the game wasn't actually released at that time. :shrug:

Anyway I only made that chart as something for us to speculate on, not as an attempt to make it a fact.



Which is just a rip-off of http://i56.tinypic.com/2rm9lwj.png. :glare:

Ah, that's the one I've been looking for!

[Veronica Flores]

Which is just a rip-off of http://i56.tinypic.com/2rm9lwj.png. :glare:

I like that one a lot more, although the numbers in the last column confuse me.

Personally I think pre-production numbers are best ignored. Morrowind had some pre-production work done in 1997 or maybe as early as 1996. Fallout 3 also had an odd pre-production period, from my understanding it was about a year before the pre-production time had many members and all of those people were also working on Oblivion (consider that the lead designer of Fallout 3 did the Dark Brotherhood quest line of Oblivion. On the other hand Oblivion had a much larger group starting pre-production after Morrowind's release.

We know that Fallout 3 entered full production shortly after Oblivion was released in March 2006, is was unveiled in June 2007, and it was released in October 2008.

We can't apply any of this exactly to their next game. We've been told that Bethesda wants a shorter time frame between unveiling their game and releasing it so we really have to ignore that value. We know that Fallout 3 benefited from an extremely long pre-production period and we don't know if this is also true for their next title. However I'd be surprised if it started full production later than January 2009. Lastly we know that their new game has a new engine while Fallout 3 had an upgraded version of the Oblivion engine - chances are that will increase their developement time.

Still even if we allow for a slightly later date for starting pre-production and a slightly longer developement time this still suggests a Summer or Fall 2011 release. Bethesda has had a number of Fall releases lately but RAGE is slated for September 2011 and it's possible Bethesda will want some breathing room between the titles. They are different genres but they'll be major releases in their respective genres, personally I think a November 2011 or Holiday 2011 release is most likely.

[lilmissparty]

Morrowind had some pre-production work done in 1997 or maybe as early as 1996.

:huh:

[Dj Matty P]

I like that one a lot more, although the numbers in the last column confuse me.

Personally I think pre-production numbers are best ignored. Morrowind had some pre-production work done in 1997 or maybe as early as 1996. Fallout 3 also had an odd pre-production period, from my understanding it was about a year before the pre-production time had many members and all of those people were also working on Oblivion (consider that the lead designer of Fallout 3 did the Dark Brotherhood quest line of Oblivion. On the other hand Oblivion had a much larger group starting pre-production after Morrowind's release.

We know that Fallout 3 entered full production shortly after Oblivion was released in March 2006, is was unveiled in June 2007, and it was released in October 2008.

We can't apply any of this exactly to their next game. We've been told that Bethesda wants a shorter time frame between unveiling their game and releasing it so we really have to ignore that value. We know that Fallout 3 benefited from an extremely long pre-production period and we don't know if this is also true for their next title. However I'd be surprised if it started full production later than January 2009. Lastly we know that their new game has a new engine while Fallout 3 had an upgraded version of the Oblivion engine - chances are that will increase their developement time.

Still even if we allow for a slightly later date for starting pre-production and a slightly longer developement time this still suggests a Summer or Fall 2011 release. Bethesda has had a number of Fall releases lately but RAGE is slated for September 2011 and it's possible Bethesda will want some breathing room between the titles. They are different genres but they'll be major releases in their respective genres, personally I think a November 2011 or Holiday 2011 release is most likely.

I think you misunderstood my intent with that last column. I simply made a "Project 2" column to show that they do indeed have a 2nd project. The months in it have nothing to do with it, I simply put 60 months there so it wouldn't be a teeny tiny little column hidden at the bottom of the image.

As for the Project 1 column, I just put Todd's comments in a basic time frame. Again, me putting 60 months there is just so it isn't a small column at the bottom of the page.

Edit: http://img695.imageshack.us/img695/1057/timeline17.png

[Glu Glu]

So no word from Beth...i hope it comes out before 2013.

[Lori Joe]

So no word from Beth...i hope it comes out before 2013.

i think we have much evidence to pretty much guarantee that it comes out before 2013, the current belief is late 2011

[i grind hard]

This is still semi topic related, and it's probably been said, what are the guesses for GI November issue? 3DS?

--edit--
Resistance 3 images have leaked, so that's another possibility.

[Emma Louise Adams]

Morrowind had some pre-production work done in 1997 or maybe as early as 1996.

Do you mean FO3?

[Nicole Elocin]

This is still semi topic related, and it's probably been said, what are the guesses for GI November issue? 3DS?

--edit--
Resistance 3 images have leaked, so that's another possibility.

I don't feel there's any chance that the November cover of GI (to be revealed in early October) will be TES V. The December cover is the earliest possible cover imo.

[dell]

Which is just a rip-off of http://i56.tinypic.com/2rm9lwj.png. :glare:

Hey, I'm the one that made the other chart, never seen yours before so not trying to it rip off! Mine was purely to demonstrate a thought in one of my articles and yours is leaps and bounds more in depth than mine. So yeah, good chart bro.

[Paul Rice]

Hey, I'm the one that made the other chart, never seen yours before so not trying to it rip off! Mine was purely to demonstrate a thought in one of my articles and yours is leaps and bounds more in depth than mine. So yeah, good chart bro.

Oh, I apologize then.

[Kayleigh Williams]

Do you mean FO3?

I think he meant 1997 and 1996.

[Deon Knight]

Well, I have to say this. I wish they fulfill 60 months cycle this time. Their tech needs lots of improvement. Looking at Fallout's development time, when applied to TES, guarantees 60 months dev time. In my opinion. (Although, this time I have to think that they were working on the new project full-scale, or half-scale during Fallout 3's devolopment. I pretty much think they don't use Gamebryo tech as it was and was working on the engine full time before FO3. They simply decided to use old tech one more time for FO3 and focused all the dev time to new project. This time they really tried to systematize things, which is why the actual content development is taking less time.)

Let's say they announce it soon and not follow FO3 but Morrowind or Oblivion.

Then we can be 18 months away.

If we take Morrowind, then 26 months.


I agree with an November announcement so.

March 2012
or
A late 2012 or 2013 release.


If it is the shortest than, let's say 12 months.

December 2011

If it is shorter than that, where is it gonna be shown in 2010-2011 then? They can make a surprise announcement like DNF on an event.

Maybe they release a DEMO this time too.

[N3T4]

Well, I have to say this. I wish they fulfill 60 months cycle this time. Their tech needs lots of improvement. Looking at Fallout's development time, when applied to TES, guarantees 60 months dev time. In my opinion. (Although, this time I have to think that they were working on the new project full-scale, or half-scale during Fallout 3's devolopment. I pretty much think they don't use Gamebryo tech as it was and was working on the engine full time before FO3. They simply decided to use old tech one more time for FO3 and focused all the dev time to new project. This time they really tried to systematize things, which is why the actual content development is taking less time.)

Let's say they announce it soon and not follow FO3 but Morrowind or Oblivion.

Then we can be 18 months away.

If we take Morrowind, then 26 months.


I agree with an November announcement so.

March 2012
or
A late 2012 or 2013 release.


If it is the shortest than, let's say 12 months.

December 2011

If it is shorter than that, where is it gonna be shown in 2010-2011 then? They can make a surprise announcement like DNF on an event.

Maybe they release a DEMO this time too.

I honestly think a July or August summer release could be highly possible, you get all that hype from E3 flowing over and previous announcements on the super bowl would all add up.

[Zach Hunter]

I don't feel there's any chance that the November cover of GI (to be revealed in early October) will be TES V. The December cover is the earliest possible cover imo.

I'm running through my brain trying to figure out what the next one could be. I mean, BioShock Infinite was a no-brainer, but now? I mean, there was the DmC thing that everyone disproportionately whined about, erm, maybe BioWare could announce Mass Effect 3 (that'd be cool). No real clue on my part, I've only been following this and Skyward Sword since Other M and Reach came out.