Several points... Armor Games making a RPG? wtf... Read the edit please, read the article
I love how people speculate about TESV by showing us the "announcement"... it only serves to display their inability to use logic which would dictate that if TESV was announced this thread would not exist. On topic though, I have been putting some things together and without going into inane detail, I did do some research with regards to publishing and electronic media. There are so many facets to it that I am in no way close to considering myself an authority, and I can see how people can actually have an intense collegiate experience with marketing as their major. It has been eye opening to say the least. One bit that gets me is the silence from Bethesda since most of the views I have seen play back to studies done where over exposure or super-saturation of product identity drives consumerism. It is like Coca-Cola and Ronald McDonald... whose recognition is driven by over-exposure. You can go anywhere on earth and find someone who knows about Coke and McDonalds. There have been several studies and case anolysis done where absence does NOT make the "heart grow fonder" in regards to consumerism. Nostalgic purchases require spans of 10 years or greater, and any intermittent spans of absence tend to exponentially reduce consumer confidence. Of course, this is a generalization because as we all know, video games are not french fries. Even if a drought occurs between sequels, all a game needs is to be amazing, and you recoup your sales with new people who want to play this awesome game. You don't actually lose interest with your market because they are already pre-occupied with other games. It is like the competition actually helps you survive the drought. TES has WOW and Dragon Age and Mass Effect and Two Worlds and all the other games they play to "tide" them over without actually changing their tastes. In the industry this is also studied when competition thrives by offering choices. I thought it was hilarious to learn that Dunkin Donuts actually suffered by offering too many different types of donuts and when they went back to a smaller choice list their donut sales increased. People like choices and are able to wait for sequels so long as they have alternatives. The best thing I got out of this whole research project was that BGS can take their time, because so long as the game is AWESOME, it doesn't matter how long it takes. What does matter is that they are a viable resource to the market, thus the publishing arm needs to pump out games in relative quick succession so that distributors will find this as a viable revenue source.
All that to say, I think we are in a place where Todd's team is going to have the freedom to make great games, and Softworks is going to do the business that supports them. It is perfect. I see Softworks future much more clearly than BGS, since it is clear we will see about a dozen additional publishing deals over the next 3 years. This is good news because that will allow BGS to grow and I don't think it will be too long before Todd appoints a lead Elder Scrolls and a lead Fallout person whose names will be tossed about these forums on a daily basis.
ZeniMax is really making some interesting moves on an international level as well, and the implications there are astounding. I cannot wait to see if my predictions for their business model holds true through 2011. If so, we could see some very interesting developments. This includes the Online business as well.
So for TESV to fit into all of this, it has to come after Fallout New Vegas and before the end of this year.