I know that there is sufficient evidence to warrant the belief that the game will be announced soon, but this does at least allow us to say with some degree of certainty that the game will be announced within the time frame of Published for Opposition (I came up with a month after a very cursory search) + the 36 months, right?
It's silly to think that it'll even take that long, I know, but evidence is evidence.
You are correct that the 36 months starts after the NoA has been issued. However, I disagree to an extent with your implication. If my interpretation is correct, then I don't think they can use the mark until after the application has cleared the Opposition hurdle and Zenimax has been issued a Notice of Allowance.
I have a tentative theory on a reasonable timeframe for an announcement based on the trademark status. Now before you rush to the nearest receptacle into which to empty your nauseated stomach at the thought of another reckless trademark theory, let me make it quite clear that THIS IS TENUOUS AT BEST. We've been wrong before with the trademarks, so I could be yet again...and likely am. However, I am going to approach it from a negative approach. Rather than use trademark information to predict when an announcement will come, I am attempting to use it to determine when an announcement cannot come. Here are my thoughts below:
I have checked the trademark status for a while but as I look now I am not seeing anything that indicates the new trademark for the game itself (#85067861) has been published for opposition. In fact, it appears that the application is currently hung up on a conflict with the previous application (#77022291). Once this is cleared up (which I have no estimate of time other than an arbitrary guess of less than a month) THEN the Publication for Opposition will occur. It is not until 30 days after that date of Publication for Opposition will Zenimax be issued a Notice of Allowance, after which they may use the mark in commerce. In other words, an announcement may not be possible until after the NoA has been issued.
Looking at their other trademark, for merchandise and apparel (#85094021), it appears it is on the verge of Publication for Opposition (if not already). However, the website says to check back two months from 9-28 for the exact date of publication. It may well be that October will be when the mark undergoes Publication for Opposition, which means November is when the NoA is issued and an announcement is able to be made.
So what does this all mean? Probably nothing...but perhaps something. The admitted weakness of this presentation is the requirement of assumptions in the midst of ignorance. But here is how I put the pieces together (for what it's worth): ASSUMING that they can announce from the soonest trademark application (merchandise & apparel #85094021), and ASSUMING the merchandise trademark application will be published for opposition in October, and ASSUMING that they cannot announce until a NoA is issued after the 30 days for opposition, THEN it stands to reason that an announcement cannot happen until November.
This does not prove a November announcement by any means, but suggests that November is the soonest we can currently expect it. I believe the arguments for why the announcement won't happen until after the new year are more compelling, but this at least makes the November/December arguments credible. I am curious as to how the game trademark (#85067861) hangup may or may not factor into the timeframe within which an announcement cannot occur.
This may shed some light into the apparent discrepancy between Todd and Pete's readiness for an announcement; why Todd is ready but Pete is not.
Anyway...those are my thoughts!
EDIT: which is all pretty much meaningless. *Curses trademarks once again*