Nope. Just usually right about things like this. Add on top of that, Todd Howard told us, not to expect a new Elder Scrolls game in the "near future" about a year ago. You can interpret "near future" however you like but I think it means that it is not in production.
You got moxy, kid, but until you rustle up some facts to support your gut feelings, I'm not inclined to believe ya.
Firstly, the quote from Howard about not expecting a new Elder Scrolls generated enough negative press that Pete Hines went out and countered the statement saying that it was out of context, saying they merely weren't ready to discuss announcements. This was after Quake Con, in August 2009. That is not only "about a year ago" but just over a year. If they announce a new game in the next 6 months, I doubt that falls under anyone's expectations of "near future," especially considering they would want to keep attention on their more current projects. In fact, Howard's first statement might have been in response to reactions to
this quote from Gamasutra on June 25th, 2009 from Pete, "On the flip side, Todd [Howard] and his team have their hands full with The Elder Scrolls and Fallout.'
Also, this article states that the domain name for "Elder Scrolls 5" has been blocked.
http://systemlink.gamersguidetolife.com/2010/08/multiple-sequels-hinted-at-in-domain.html